基于角色认知与行为视角的山丘区农村女性就业转移动态机制及效应研究

This research mainly focuses on rural females in typical mountainous and upland areas of Sichuan. After the fourth round of the tracking investigation of representative sample households, a four-period dynamic panel data and interview material will be obtained. From the perspective of female self-perception, this project constructs an Employment-Role Conflict Cognition scale to reveal the quantitative relations between rural female roles and employment. Through exploring the employment histories of individual samples, the study characterizes the dynamic process of the female employment transfer, and exposes the difference and regularity of rural female employment strategies in mountainous and upland areas from different scale units. The factors affecting rural females’ decision of employment strategy are divided into three categories: personal, household, and settlement characteristics. Meanwhile, livelihood vulnerability and public goods investment are introduced in the quantification of the latter two categories respectively. The research employs unbalanced panel data and econometric models (such as logistic regression model) to find the key factors of rural female employment strategies. An Employment-happiness measure system considering comprehensive effect is established for rural women in mountainous and upland areas, involving livelihood level, children quality, spouse relationship, elderly dependent and other aspects. Based on the theoretical hypothesis——“Individual Background - Employment Strategy - Happiness” effect, the study applies PLS path analysis method to achieve model construction and parameter estimation. The aim is to conclude the employment view of rural females of mountainous and upland areas in the new era, and propose measures to promote off-farm employment and maximize the Employment-Happiness effect.

基于女性角色的特殊性及其就业行为的关联性，以四川典型山丘区农村女性为对象，结合新一轮同户回访和前3期调研数据生成4期动态面板数据和质性访谈资料。从女性自我认知视角出发，构建“就业-角色冲突认知量表”，揭示其角色认知与就业态度的定量关系；构建样本个体就业史，刻画女性就业转移动态过程，揭示不同尺度下山区农村女性就业策略差异和规律；将影响山区女性就业策略的因素分为个人、家庭和聚落特征，并在家庭和聚落特征量化中，引入生计脆弱性和公共物品投资的新视角，利用非平衡面板数据的Logistic回归等计量模型探究影响女性就业策略的关键因素及效应；从财富、子女质量、配偶和谐及老人赡养等方面建立山区农村女性“就业—幸福”效应测度体系，在“个体背景—就业—幸福效应”理论假设的基础上利用PLS路径分析实现模型建构和参数估计；总结出新时期山区农村女性就业观，提出促进非农就业转移，实现家庭“就业—幸福效应”最大化的对策

农村女性就业转移对农村家庭整体迁移，推动城镇化进程具有重要意义。但目前我国山丘区城镇化水平仍远低于全国平均水平，山丘区农村劳动力剩余与城市“民工荒”矛盾突出，且山丘区农村女性就业转移明显滞后于男性。因此研究通过对四川山丘区典型样本县城镇化水平及农村劳动力就业转移时空差异的剖析、格兰杰因果关系检验，揭示四川山丘区城镇化与农村劳动力就业转移关系。运用“工日法”测算典型样本县剩余劳动力时空差异及供给潜力。通过对比分析揭示山区农村女性就业转移的差异和变化规律；在此基础上利用二项和多分类logistic回归模型探究个人、家庭、社区、自然环境、社会网络等因素对山丘区农村女性就业转移的动态影响，并探究女性角色认知和其就业之间的关系。同时，建立包含工具变量的ordered-probit模型探究山丘区劳动力迁移对家庭中老年健康的影响。结果发现：.(1)四川山丘区城镇化、农村劳动力就业转移区域差异明显。丘陵县及高城镇化率县剩余劳动力的转移速度相对较快，其农村劳动力就业转移态势优于山地县和低城镇化率县。四川山丘区城镇化、产业结构和农村劳动力就业转移存在较明显的因果关系。三产比重变化与农村劳动力就业转移的相互影响时间相对较长。.(2)样本县剩余劳动力数量和比例总体呈现出现增加后减少的趋势，但总体上还存在较大数量的剩余劳动力，且以女性为主。.(3)36-45岁年龄段、初中教育农村妇女非农就业和兼业增幅最大，农村女性健康状态变化不大。.(4)个人、家庭、社区、自然环境以及社会网络对山丘区农村女性就业转移都具有一定动态影响，其中家庭特征影响较大。.(5)农村女性就业期望与实际就业不符；角色认知与农村女性职业期望有显著的正相关性，角色冲突认知对农村女性职业期待与实际职业有相反的影响；年龄对就业行业和就业地点有显著负向影响，受教育程度与行业选择显著正相关。.(6)劳动力迁移总体上对老人健康的影响是正向的，当家庭中男女劳动力共同迁移，或者仅有男性劳动力迁移时，都能对老人健康产生积极地影响，但若仅有女性劳动力迁移则对老人健康的影响是消极的。.最后，研究对于应对山丘区农村女性就业转移的现存问题，促进山丘区社会经济可持续发展提出以下对策建议：加强基础教育的投入，发展职业教育；发展多元化的就地转移渠道和托幼养老组织；建立健全就业信息服务网络；加强与农村女性劳动力非农就业配套的基础设施建设。