已婚女性就业、家庭梯次迁移与农村转移人口市民化:机理与实证

China is undergoing a rapid process for urbanization, with which the urbanization rate passes 50%, the number of migrant workers has reached more than 250 million, and married people accounts for 73.4%. Non-family migration mode of rural population has many serious social problems.It will contribute to the advancement of China's urbanization process and the stable development of the society to impel the family migration and steadily live in cities and then achieve their citizenization for the rural transfer population.Married women are often overlooked, while they often play as the core roles in family migration. Therefore, this research depicts the outgoing employment process of rural married women from their first time to go out for jobs, geographical spatial mobility, occupational mobility and human capital enhancement. The interaction mechanism between rural married women employment and family echelon migration is also discussed from the theoretical and empirical aspects on the basis of building family echelon migration theoretical model, and the influences of rural married women's employment and family echelon migration on the citizenization for rural transfer population is revealed by using structural equation model. The core target of this project is to explore the roles of rural married women's outgoing employment and human capital enhancement in promoting family echelon migration and then boosting the citizenization process of rural transfer population, which will provide policy references for government's motivating rural married women's orderly transfer employment, reasonably guiding family migration and promoting the citizenization for rural transfer population.

中国正处于快速城市化进程中，城市化率突破50%，农民工数量已达2.5亿以上，已婚者占73.4%，但现存的农村人口非家庭转移模式存在诸多严重的社会问题。促进农村转移人口家庭迁移，稳定居住在城市，进而实现市民化，有助于中国城市化进程的顺利推进和社会的稳定发展。在家庭迁移中已婚女性是一直被忽略但又起到核心作用的角色。本研究将从首次外出就业、地理空间流动、职业流动、人力资本提升几方面刻画农村已婚女性外出就业过程。在构建家庭梯次迁移理论模型的基础上，从理论与实证两方面探讨农村已婚女性就业与家庭梯次迁移之间相互作用机理，揭示农村已婚女性就业与家庭梯次迁移对农村转移人口市民化的影响。本项目的核心目标是探究农村已婚女性外出就业、人力资本提升在促进家庭梯次迁移，进而推进农村转移人口市民化进程中所起的作用，为政府推动农村已婚女性有序转移就业，合理引导家庭迁移，促进农村转移人口市民化提供政策参考。

高速城镇化背后，农民工多处于半市民化状态，难以融入城市，促进农户家庭迁移,推进人口城镇化是农村转移人口市民化的重要任务，已婚女性是首要争取的人群，已婚女性就业稳定了，家庭转移的动力就会增强，将促进农村转移人口市民化。为此，本研究基于实地调研数据，分析已婚女性劳动力职业流动、家庭梯次流动与农村转移人口市民化，研究发现：第一，已婚女性职业流动频率低，多处于平行流动或未流动状态，向上流动较少，流动质量并不高，多是被动流动，在职业选择上处于劣势，流动多在省内流动。第二，已婚女性劳动力人力资源能力总体比较低，谋生就业能力、尊严生活能力、自我发展能力较低，融入城市能力较高。已婚女性劳动力人力资源能力和谋生就业能力是影响职业流动频率和流动方向的重要因素。第三，频繁的职业流动对已婚女性劳动力收入影响不显著，却有利于男性劳动力收入的增长。流动方向对已婚女性劳动力收入影响不显著，但向上流动有利于男性劳动力收入的增长。相对于被动流动，主动流动有利于已婚女性劳动力收入增长，但对男性劳动力收入影响不显著。影响已婚女性劳动力和男性劳动力收入的因素差异显著。第四，农村劳动力转移表现出家庭梯次流动的特征，家庭梯次流动基本以丈夫先锋梯次流动，妻子随迁就业的形式为主。在大城市，无论是丈夫先锋梯次流动，还是妻子先锋梯次流动，另一方随迁未就业的比重较低，而在中小城市，这种现象却不明显。新生代农民工家庭流动的特征更明显，人口流动的家庭化成为新生代不同于老一代农民工的一个重要标志。第五，影响家庭梯次流动的因素中，就业的相对稳定性和收入的相对稳定性，尤其已婚女性的就业稳定、收入稳定是决定家庭梯次流动的关键因素。最后，发挥已婚女性融入城市能力的优势，提高已婚女性人力资源能力，推动已婚女性有序转移，增加就业稳定性，收入稳定性，合理引导家庭梯次迁移，将促进农村转移人口市民化。