城市可变线路公交的承载能力与调度模型研究

With the rapid development of Chinese economy, the urban population and private cars ownership of China has increased rapidly, the urban spatial expansion of China has increased continuously. Urban traffic jam and automobile exhaust pollution became more and more seriously. In these contexts, this research focuses on the models and implement methods of the carrying capacity and operational scheduling for urban flex-route transit system, in order to facilitate residents’ traveling by public transit and reduce the trip of private car, which can mitigate the traffic jam and reduce the air pollution. This research will use systematic coordinated approach to resolve the key problems in carrying capacity and intelligent operational scheduling for urban flex-route transit system. These key problems include: exploring the mechanism of traffic behavior, such as the traveler’s choice of travelling mode and route planning, studying the effecting factors for computing carrying capacity and intelligent operational scheduling of the flex-route transit system, establishing the carrying capacity computational model of the flex-route transit system, constituting intelligent operational scheduling model of flex-route transit system in the internet of public vehicle environment, and design the algorithms of the carrying capacity computational model and intelligent operational scheduling model in order to lay the theoretical foundation for the popularization and application of flex-route transit system. Developing the software to compute carrying capacity and intelligent operational scheduling of urban flex-route transit system can offer effective judgment supports in planning and design, operational management of urban flex-route transit system for relevant agencies. This research has important practical implication in solving the “last kilometer problem” of urban fixed route transit and the “empty driving problem” of urban demand responsive transit. This research also has important political and social significances in improving the proportion of travelling by public transit, relieving urban traffic congestion, relieving traffic pollution and realization of National Plan on New Urbanization.

随着我国经济的不断增长，我国城市人口和私人汽车快速增加、城市空间进一步扩张，交通拥堵、汽车尾气污染日益严重。项目在此背景下重点研究城市可变线路公交的承载能力与运行调度模型和实施方法，以方便市民公交出行，减少私家车出行，缓解交通拥堵，降低空气污染。主要采用系统协调方法探索居民出行方式、路径规划等交通行为特征，研究可变线路公交承载能力计算与智能化运行调度的影响因素，建立可变线路公交承载能力计算模型、公交车联网环境下的可变线路公交智能化运行调度模型，设计模型算法为推广应用可变线路公交奠定理论基础。开发可变线路公交承载能力计算与智能化运行调度软件，为有关部门进行可变线路公交系统的规划、设计与建设提供决策依据。研究成果对于解决固定线路式公交“最后一公里问题”、需求响应式公交“空驶问题”具有重要的现实意义，对于提高公交出行比例、缓解交通拥堵、降低交通污染、实现《国家新型城镇化规划》具有重要的政治意义。

可变线路公交具有固定线路公交的低成本以及需求响应式公交的灵活性，能够很好地满足低出行密度区域居民的出行需求并解决其出行的最后一公里问题。本项目研究可以方便市民公交出行，减少私家车出行，缓解交通拥堵，降低空气污染。.本项目在分析城市可变线路公交的运营特性的基础上，结合问卷调查、理论模型构建、仿真系统开发等研究方式，对可变线路公交的承载能力与调度模型进行了研究。在战略规划层面，结合国内车辆实际运行环境和小区分布的特点，建立了可变线路公交服务区域的选择模型；在战术规划层面，以典型的矩形服务区域为例，分析了松弛时间与乘客需求以及服务区域的关系，构建了系统服务区域宽度、运行周期以及车辆发车间隔的计算模型，并提出了可变线路公交运营能力的概念，建立了运营能力的理论计算模型并开发了仿真计算软件；在运行规划层面，针对静态的乘客需求，建立了以服务乘客人数最大化为上层目标，乘客综合出行时间最小化为下层目标的可变线路公交最优路径规划模型，并设计了遗传算法对其进行求解。针对可变线路公交在实时运行过程中可能出现的动态事件，提出一种基于智能交通技术的动态调度框架以及针对每类动态事件的路径优化模型，开发了可变线路公交时刻表编制仿真软件；在运营策略优化层面，分别提出了可变线路公交的动态离站时间窗策略以及待选站点策略，这两种策略分别从时间以及空间的维度对原有运营模式的强制约束进行了松弛，从而提高了静态路径规划的灵活性，能够显著提高出行需求不确定条件下可变线路公交服务的可靠性，缓解乘客被拒绝以及在固定站点空等的现象。在系统仿真与评估层面，开发了基于多Agent的可变线路公交运营仿真原型系统，为运营商在可变线路公交实施前的规划以及实施后的评估提供决策支持。.发表及录用学术论文32篇，其中，国际核心期刊8篇，国内核心期刊8篇，其他期刊论文4篇，国际会议论文12篇；发表论文已经被SCI检索7篇次、被EI检索13篇次；应邀在CICTP国际学术会议上作邀请报告1次。申请发明专利8项（已受理发明专利6项，已授权发明专利2项），获得计算机软件著作权1项。培养2人完成了博士学位论文、17人完成了硕士学位论文。他们已经获得博士或硕士学位并走向工作岗位。