高频公交线路运行区间重叠下的车辆静态调度与动态控制方法

On the arterial roads of large cities in our country, it is a common phenomenon that multiple high-frequency bus routes overlap in some operating sections. This will result in large fluctuations in bus dwell times and reduce the operational reliability. Besides, it also leads to simultaneous arrivals of multiple buses at the stop and cause the traffic bottleneck. In current researches, the impact of these features on bus schedule and dynamic control were not considered. In addition, the holding strategy was usually employed in dynamic control methods, which is not suitable to the bus systems in our country. Therefore, in this study the impacts of passenger demand and number of stops in overlapping section on bus movements are analyzed, and then a synchronous algorithm is developed to optimize bus frequencies and dispatching times for the multiple routes. The bus route is divided into three sections, which are intersection, road section and stop. To eliminate the differences in operating states of adjacent buses in road section or intersection, the dynamic control set is brought forward based on four strategies, which are signal control, speed guidance, cooperative overtake and cooperative pull in. The bus headway evolution model is developed. The optimization objective is given by considering headway evaluating index and passenger total travel times. Parameters in the dynamic control set are taken as optimization variables, the multiple-state optimization method is developed to produce dynamic control plans for the buses on multiple routes. The study is meaningful to improve the operational efficiency and reliability of bus system.

在我国各大城市主干道，普遍存在多条高发车频率的公交线路运行区间重叠的现象。这不仅会增大公交车停靠时间的随机波动、降低线路运行可靠性；还容易出现多辆公交车同时进站，导致站点处的交通瓶颈。已有研究并未考虑区间重叠对公交调度和动态控制的影响；而且动态控制方面以驻站策略为主，研究成果无法适应我国城市公交特征。基于此，本项目分析重叠区间内出行的乘客比例、站点数量对各线路公交车辆运行的影响，建立发车频率与发车时刻的协同优化方法。将公交线路分解为路段、交叉口、站点三部分，为了在路段与交叉口消除相邻公交车运行状态的差异，基于信号控制、车速引导、协作式超车、协同进站等构建车头时距动态控制策略集，建立车头时距动态演化模型。考虑车头时距评价指标与乘客总出行时间构建优化目标，以动态控制策略集中的控制参数为优化变量，建立多条线路公交车控制方案的多阶段优化方法。研究成果对于提高公交系统运行效率与可靠性具有重要意义。

为了解决由于公交线路运行区间重叠导致的公交站点堵塞、串车等问题，本项目以城市公交系统为研究对象，建立了线路静态调度与车辆动态控制方法。取得的主要理论成果包括：.（1）公交线路运行参数估计方法.运行参数的准确估计是制定线路时刻表以及车辆动态控制方案的基础。本项目基于哈尔滨市公交车GPS数据以及调研得到的运行数据，分别建立了考虑车厢拥挤度影响的站点停靠时间估计方法、考虑信号交叉口影响的站间行程时间预测方法以及冬季冰雪天气影响下的线路行程时间估计方法。.（2）公交线路静态调度方法.公交线路的静态调度主要是从时间控制点确定、时刻表制定、车型选择、车辆停靠方案等角度，优化静态调度方案。将时间控制点的确定转换为多阶段决策过程，利用动态规划方法建立了时间控制点的优化模型；考虑城市干道公交线路运行区间重叠的影响，根据乘客起点与终点，将乘客分为三种类型；建立了考虑乘客出行行为的时刻表优化方法、越站策略影响下的线路组合调度方法、大型车与小型车相结合情况下的组合调度方法。以哈尔滨市的实际公交线路为例，对所建立的静态调度方法进行了验证与评价。.（3）公交车辆动态控制方法.针对公交车运行过程中出现的晚点、串车等问题，建立了由车速诱导、多周期信号协同优化、驻站、超车等构成的动态控制策略集合；给出了公交车辆动态运行过程描述模型；以公交车辆车头时距偏离程度最小为目标，分别建立了单线路公交车辆动态控制模型、多线路重叠下的公交车辆动态控制模型、允许超车情况下的车辆动态控制模型；并以哈尔滨市和吉林省梅河口市的实际公交线路为例进行验证。.（4）电动公交车辆调度方法.这是本项目的扩展内容。考虑公交车线路行程时间以及运行能耗的随机波动，基于实际数据建立了能耗估计模型、能耗与行程时间随机波动的表达方法；以所需电动公交车最少、能耗最小、准点率最高为目标，建立了电动公交线路车辆排班与充电的调度模型；并以一条实际公交线路为例进行验证。