城市公交线路系统中的聚集行为分析及协同控制策略研究

Orderly and effeicent transit operation is deemed as one of the most important properties of modern public transit systems. However, a quantity of real observed data shows that bus bunching and passenger clustering phenomena are pervasive along bus routes. The concrete features are that: the buses do not follow timetables and bunch together along the line or arrive at the stops aggregately, while the passengers crowd and cluster together both inside and outside of the carriage. This project intends to focus on the identification, description and control of the cluster behaviors on the bus routes. The bus route simulating model and the coupled vehicle-passenger analytical model based on the cellular automata and non-linear map approach will be respectively developed, and required to explore the generation mechanism and macro-properties of the cluster behaviors. The factors that affect the aggregation process and the coupling dynamics of the two seemingly unrelated clusters will be investigated as well. Based on the analysis, we will propose three kinds of cooperation mechanisms, such as coordinated goals, information sharing and cooperative strategies. The orderly organized passenger flow and bus stream under cooperative driving can be thus achieved, which lead to better spatiotemporal distribution of buses along the route and passengers at various stops. At last, we also conduct empirical studies by appling our solutions to typical bus routes in Hefei. This study will enhance the attractiveness and load capacity of the public transit system and promote the development of intelligent public transit system, which have significant theoretical fundation for the implementation of policy priority and the modernization of public transit system.

有序、高效的公交运营是现代化公交系统的主要特征之一。然而，大量实测数据显示公交线路上普遍存在车流和客流的聚集现象，分别表现为：公交车辆在线路上偏离调度聚集行驶及在站点处密集到达，乘客在车厢内外的蜂拥聚集。本课题拟以公交线路上聚集行为的提取、阐释和控制为主线，采用基于元胞自动机模型和非线性映射方法分别构建公交线路仿真模型和车流-客流解析模型，分析公交线路聚集行为的生成机理、宏观特性及影响因素，探讨两类聚集行为的耦合互动机理。在此基础上，借助乘客-公交-站点间信息互通共享，通过目标协同、信息协同和策略协同等机制，实现线路上乘客的有序组织、公交的合作驾驶，诱导车流和客流的合理时空分布，以提升公交系统的吸引力和承载力。最后，采用合肥市典型的公交线路进行实证研究。本项目的研究可以促进智能公交系统的发展，为我国公交优先政策的实施和现代化公交系统的建设奠定良好的理论基础。

有序、高效的公交运营是现代化公交系统的主要特征之一。然而，大量实测数据显示公交线路上普遍存在车流和客流的聚集现象，分别表现为：公交车辆在线路上偏离调度聚集行驶及在站点处密集到达，乘客在车厢内外的蜂拥聚集。本项目以公交线路上聚集行为的提取、阐释和控制为主线，构建了公交线路系统中的公交车头时距模型和乘客流社会力模型；分析了线路上各类聚集行为的生成机理、宏观特性及影响因素；发现了四种典型的公交运行状态，即：规则态、过渡态、组对态及聚簇态；发现了乘客流聚集的三种构型，即“扇形”、“彗星”、“蜿蜒曲折”构型。在此基础上，协同控制“车载容量”、“初始发车间隔”、“速度限制”和“乘客上车模式”等，使得公交车流最大程度地运行在规则态下。当公交车流运行至聚簇态时，调整相关参数，促使公交车流向组对态转变；当公交车流处于组对态或过渡态时，遏制公交车流向更加严重的集簇状态转变，从而降低线路中公交车流的车头时距偏离率和减轻线路系统中的乘客滞留率，以提升公交线路系统的吸引力和承载力。最后，采取了合肥市典型的公交线路进行实证研究。本项目的研究可以促进智能公交系统的发展，为我国公交优先政策的实施和现代化公交系统的建设奠定良好的理论基础。