化工园区多米诺效应的多致损因子耦合作用机理及增韧原理

The domino effect accidents have occurred frequently and show the more severe tendency in chemical industrial parks. The failure law of target equipment subjected to the coupling impact of multiple damage factors is theoretical base for domino effect accidents prevention and control and the resilience enhancing of the chemical industrial parks. Firstly, for the coupling problem of multiple damage factors in the actual domino effect scenarios, the identification methods of domino effect levels and escalation orders are studied in the forms coupled by same or different kind of damage factors, which overcomes the limitations only considering of the single damage factor. Secondly, the failure probability of target equipment subjected by the coupling impact of multiple damage factors is modeled, and the influence of the intensity parameters of multiple damage factors and the structure parameters of target equipment on the equipment failure is studied to reveal the coupling mechanism of multiple damage factors. Thirdly, based on the domino escalation path diagram, the domino effect accident scenario probability models for different levels are built, to identify the worst accident scenario and put forward the technical measures of accident prevention and control. Finally, through the controllable degree of accident consequences and the integrity degree of system function, the system function state formula is obtained to quantitatively characterize the technical resilience of the chemical industry park system. And the system resilience enhancing theory in chemical industry park is studied to provide the new ways for the prevention and control of domino effect.

化工园区多米诺效应事故时有发生，且呈现出愈演愈烈的趋势，多致损因子耦合作用下目标设备破坏失效规律是多米诺效应事故防控和园区增韧的理论基础。针对多米诺效应场景中客观存在的多致损因子耦合问题，研究同类或非同类多致损因子耦合形式的多米诺效应层级及扩展序列识别方法，突破当前只考虑单致损因子作用研究的局限性；构建多致损因子耦合作用下目标设备破坏失效概率理论模型，研究多致损因子强度参数及目标设备结构参数对目标设备破坏失效的影响规律，揭示多致损因子耦合作用机理；基于扩展链路图建立不同层级多米诺效应场景概率模型，识别最坏事故场景并提出事故防控技术措施；从事故后果的可控度和系统功能的完整度构建系统功能状态函数，量化表征化工园区系统技术韧性，研究化工园区系统增韧原理，为化工园区多米诺效应事故防控开拓新途径。

化工园区多米诺事故扩展场景与扩展模式复杂，火灾热辐射、爆炸冲击波、爆炸碎片等致损因子的耦合作用加大了事故防控难度。研究化工园区多米诺效应的多致损因子耦合作用机理及增韧原理是多米诺事故预防与控制的理论基础与重要依据。.建立了多致损因子耦合作用的目标设备破坏失效模式与破坏失效准则。开展了两池火耦合、两源冲击波耦合、火灾热辐射与爆炸冲击波耦合、火灾热辐射与爆炸碎片耦合、爆炸冲击波与爆炸碎片耦合作用化工储罐的实验与数值模拟研究，定量分析了同类与非同类致损因子耦合作用对目标设备动力学响应过程和破坏失效的影响规律，得到了多致损因子耦合作用下目标设备的屈曲失效、坍塌凹陷失效、绝热剪切失效、拉伸撕裂失效、绝热剪切失效与拉伸撕裂失效共存、破裂失效等多种破坏失效模式，并建立了相应的破坏失效准则。.构建了多致损因子耦合作用的目标设备破坏失效概率模型。基于多致损因子耦合作用下化工储罐的失效机理，建立了各类致损因子耦合作用目标设备的集中参数模型和破坏失效的极限状态方程，提出了目标设备破坏失效概率理论求解方法，揭示了载荷不确定性和目标结构参数不确定性对目标设备破坏失效概率的影响规律。.建立了多致损因子耦合作用的不同层级多米诺效应场景概率模型。研究了各类致损因子耦合作用的多米诺事故扩展序列识别方法，结合多致损因子耦合作用的目标设备破坏失效概率模型，构建了各类致损因子耦合作用下化工储罐区多米诺事故扩展链路图，识别出了最坏多米诺事故场景和关键事故储罐。.构建了多致损因子耦合作用的化工园区系统增韧分析模型。明确了化工园区韧性内涵，提出了量化表征化工园区系统韧性的功能状态函数。从主动安全屏障、被动安全屏障、应急救援等角度提出了科学合理的化工园区应对多致损因子耦合作用的技术增韧措施，定量评估了不同增韧措施的增韧效果。.本项目研究结果对化工园区多米诺效应防控具有重要的理论和工程应用价值。