媒体报道下我国消费者农产品质量安全风险认知与购买行为形成机制研究

This study aims to establish a perfect risk early warning system under media report on agri-product quality and safety. By acquiring the news data of agricultural product safety from online media, key controlling and controlled factors of quality and safety in agro-product supply chain was recognized, thus to reveal the social diffusion path of consumer risk perception under reports of agro-product safety events. Consumers’ willingness to pay on agri-products quality and safety attributes under various media reports was estimated by introducing Choice Experiment, to illustrate that the risk perception is one of main sources of preference heterogeneity among consumer groups in social network of different structures. By introducing the spatial econometric model, this study also attempts to explore the temporal and spatial variation of consumer purchasing behavior between districts before/after some typical agri-product safety issues. And a comparison of spatial pattern and process evolution between the consumer behavior in real markets and risk spillover from agriproduct safety issues was made by using GIS. It would help to identify different spatiotemporal dynamic rules of risk between two in the industry level. The results from this study would benefit for the policy makers and industries on how to identify underlying risk of agriproduct quality and safety, and to improve the risk management. And it also offers a scientific support for a solution to bottleneck the present dynamic and cross-domain risk system of food safety and quality, reaching at a risk early warning system and coordination within cross-local government departments.

本项目以重点推进媒体报道下我国农产品安全风险预警机制建设为目标，围绕农产品安全事件与消费者风险认知及消费行为的作用关系问题，利用网络媒体报道多源异构农产品质量安全数据，识别风险关键控制环节与驱动因子，揭示消费者农产品质量安全风险认知扩散路径与放大机理；运用选择实验法，解释不同风险认知水平下消费者对农产品质量安全属性支付偏好的异质性问题并测算支付溢价，阐明微观视角下风险认知对行为形成影响机理；获取长时间序列消费行为数据，构建空间计量模型，识别媒体报道下典型农产品安全事件扩散及事件前后不同区域消费者购买行为的空间分布及过程演变，并对比扩散路径异同点，以厘清宏观层面消费者农产品质量安全购买行为形成机制。研究工作不仅可为农产品质量安全风险控制路径识别与管理提供理论依据，同时可为解决我国当前农产品风险动态跨域特点的区域协作及预警政策设计提供科学实证借鉴。

探求媒体报道下消费者农产品质量安全风险认知与购买行为形成机制，对于激发农业供给侧结构性改革“提质增效”内在动力，促进农业向追求绿色生态可持续与注重满足质的需求转变，特别在公共突发事件下，以2018年非洲猪瘟疫与2019年全球新冠疫情为例，本课题通过设计多种行为实验(CVM, AE, CE)等与实验室实验, 田野调查与线上媒体数据采集等方法，紧扣课题主要设计内容，从四个方面展开了深入探讨：（1）媒体报道下消费者风险认知影响因素及其放大路径识别；（2）消费者感知对农产品属性支付偏好及异质性影响研究；（3）媒体报道典型农产品事件对消费者购买行为影响研究；（4）媒体参与监督农产品质量安全治理的风险预警机制与政策设计。本课题选取了猪肉、番茄、虾等生冷鲜农产品消费者为研究对象，从微观层面分析媒体报道下与公共突发事件后消费者对农产品质量安全风险感知、品质偏好、信任、情绪及其对支付意愿异质性影响机理，探索消费者个人特征、家庭消费模式、社会规范、以及先验知识积累等对消费行为作用，结合从宏观行业层面开展互联网+背景下我国农产品安全事件报道与消费者行为的关系，分析事件空间溢出效应与行为的时空演化规律。本项目设计的农产品质量安全事件风险认知与购买行为形成机制的研究结论，综合了微观行为认知心理机理分析与宏观消费行为时空演化的耦合校验，有助于区分区域性间不同农产品事件的演化特征从而指导农产品安全风险预警工作，采取针对性强、区域精准度高的防控措施，为政府的农产品安全治理与监管提供科学依据，为突发公共卫生事件推进自我防御消费行为，提高公众认知和健康安全具有重要现实意义。