情景驱动的灾害链式风险协同建模与应急管理研究

Cascading disasters contribute significant part of the loss caused by any natural disaster. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province led to over 69,000 deaths, 18,000 missing and 374,000 injured. In this disaster around one third of this huge loss of life was caused by the cascading disasters of the earthquake such as landslides and flooding. Extreme rainfall could cause cascading disasters such as flooding, landslides, collapse, and traffic jam. These cascading disasters spread disruptions in complex ways that makes them difficult to comprehend and challenging to deal with. The existing cascading disaster modeling and prevention research is facing many challenges, which either rely on complex mathematic model, exclude social factors, or lack the integration of qualitative and quantitative models, and lack the consideration of social media impacts. .This proposed project aims to improve disaster management practices by identifying the impacts and diversity of such cascading disasters and better equipping the emergency personnel, the public, communities and other stakeholders. The ultimate aim will be achieved through the completion of the following objectives:.1..To promote a better understanding of the impacts of an extreme rainfall on cascading crises including failure of critical infrastructure in a way that can help improve risk mitigation, risk management and preparedness and thus reduce injuries, deaths, and property/infrastructure damage..2..To improve hazard risk communication channels and promote a better understanding of possible extreme rainfall mitigation actions by managing social factors such as the use of social media and key social behaviours of citizens and other emergency stakeholders..3..To create a better way of generating emergency response plan by replaying the scenarios of cascading disasters with scenarios-tasks-capability strategies

由灾害链产生的次生灾害所造成的危害是自然灾害造成损失的重要组成部分。2016年夏季，全国因暴雨损失数百亿元，绝大部分损失是暴雨引发的洪水、滑坡、崩塌、交通堵塞等次生灾害造成。目前链式灾害的建模研究依靠的是复杂的数学风险模型,无法包含相互关联的低风险因素比如社会因素；或者缺乏定性和定量分析模型的综合集成，对社会活动和社交媒体的影响研究也很不全面。.本项目将在研究暴雨多发地区暴雨灾害链式效应的发生演化机理基础上，研究情景驱动的灾害链式效应模拟分析方法，并从社会活动、社交媒体等社会因素、关键基础设施等多角度来研究探索灾害链风险协同建模、灾害环境社会感知建模、社交媒体的风险沟通媒介作用；提出基于情景驱动的灾害链式效应模型和应急预案编制指南。本项目的研究目标是建立暴雨链式灾害的预防、应急管理体系及基础理论与方法，为提高我国暴雨及其次生衍生灾害应急管理能力提供理论支撑，因此具有及其重要的理论意义和应用

由灾害链产生的次生灾害所造成的危害是自然灾害造成损失的重要组成部分。2016年夏季，全国因暴雨损失数百亿元，绝大部分损失是暴雨引发的洪水、滑坡、崩塌、交通堵塞等次生灾害造成。目前链式灾害的建模研究依靠的是复杂的数学风险模型，无法包含相互关联的低风险因素比如社会因素；或者缺乏定性和定量分析模型的综合集成，对社会活动和社交媒体的影响研究也很不全面。.本项目在研究暴雨多发地区暴雨灾害链式效应的发生演化机理基础上，研究了情景驱动的灾害链式效应模拟分析方法，并从社会活动、社交媒体等社会因素、关键基础设施等多角度来研究探索灾害链风险协同建模、灾害环境社会感知建模、社交媒体的风险沟通媒介作用；提出基于情景驱动的灾害链式效应模型和应急预案编制指南。本项目提出了暴雨链式灾害的预防、应急管理体系及基础理论与方法；发表了15篇期刊论文，其中SCI 7篇、EI 4篇，为提高我国暴雨及其次生衍生灾害应急管理能力提供理论支撑，具有及其重要的理论意义和应用。