多元主体参与下县域城镇化的发展机制研究

Under the backdrop of new-type urbanization, how to effectively promote the county-level urbanization has become an issue receiving attention from the whole society. It also remains an important research topic to examine the mechanism of urbanization at county level from a micro perspective of multi-actors, and to discuss on the current status of urbanization at county level from the angle of choosing behaviors of different actors. Firstly, in view of the inadequacy of western migration decision making theory in research of urbanization at county level, this proposed study will establish the framework of comprehensive analysis for urbanization at county level, based on theories of man-land relationship、behavior theory and economic man; secondly, combining methods of behavior and ordered choice model, analyze the factors and identify the key ones of multi-actors’ decision making for urbanization; subsequently, the interaction between decision making for urbanization of the government, enterprises and peasants and the urbanization effect as a result will be revealed, and the micro-mechanism of urbanization at county level from the multi-actor perspective elaborated on; and finally, under the choosing behavior of multi-actors, discuss the current status of urbanization at county level and its relationship with structural dynamics of regional urban system, and interpret the economic, political and social driving force for urbanization at county level form the viewpoint of mutual cooperation of different actors, and provide scientific supporting basis for policies on county-level urbanization corresponding to the national and civil conditions.

如何有效推进县域城镇化是当前社会各界关注的焦点。从政府、企业、农民等多元主体参与的视角剖析县域城镇化发展的微观动力机制，探索不同主体选择行为下县域城镇化的演进态势，是新型城镇化背景下亟待深入研究的科学问题。首先，融合行为地理学理论和理性经济人假设，构建多元主体城镇化决策行为的理论分析框架；其次，借助行为认知分析方法和多元排序选择模型，从个体特征、城乡环境、政策制度等不同角度剖析多元主体城镇化决策行为的影响因素，析出关键因素；在此基础上，重点揭示政府、企业、农民城镇化决策行为的互馈机制及其引致的城镇化效应，阐明县域城镇化发展的微观动力机制；最后，探讨不同主体选择行为下县域城镇化的演进态势及其对区域城镇体系结构的重塑作用，提出县域城镇化的分层发展路径。本项目理论上有助于从微观视角拓展县域城镇化发展机制的研究，实践上为制定符合国情和民情的新型城镇化政策提供科学依据。

在“以人为核心”的新型城镇化背景下，从多元主体决策的微观视角探究县域城镇化的发展规律和机制具有理论和现实意义。按照“梳理人口迁移现状特征—分析农民城镇化意愿—判断个体选择行为下区域城镇体系结构变动趋势—探索城镇化包容性发展路径”的思路开展研究。第一，利用2000、2010年全国人口普查数据，构建人口迁移综合指数分析了山东省县域人口迁移的规律。第二，利用山东省10余个县市区的问卷调查数据，探究了农民的城镇化意愿及影响因素，结合国家农村土地管理制度创新改革的背景，重点研究了农户退出宅基地意愿与转户进城意愿的互馈关系，并概括了三类不同类型的农户，提出了进城落户和退出宅基地的政策建议。第三，融合人口迁移规律、农民进城落户意愿和政府政策导向三维视角探讨了山东省城镇规模结构的变动趋势，研究发现山东省高位序城市的人口增长潜力大，县级小城镇数量多，人口规模虽有上升空间，但潜力不大。建议通过有序撤县建市、探索不同城市之间人口迁移的新制度、增强农村土地管理制度的弹性等措施来优化山东省的城市规模结构。从微观视角拓展了城市规模结构变动的理论研究，为制定符合山东省省情和民情的城市发展路径提供了科学依据。第四，结合农民不愿进城落户或难以融入城市的现状，探讨了城市包容性发展的问题，从发展机会平等、发展内容全面、发展成果共享三个维度解析了城镇化包容性发展的内涵，并构建测评指标体系，以山东省为案例进行了实证研究。理论上，从起点、过程、结果等内在联系紧密的三个维度刻画城镇化的发展水平，完善了城镇化质量的内涵。实践上，可以从不同层面检视城镇化包容性发展的障碍因素，为城镇化发展质量的提升提供指引。