突发动物疫情管控的产业损害、可挽救性测度及实现路径研究

The excessive control is witnessed universally in the face of outbreak of animal epidemic, causing industrial injury in terms of excessive span of control and amount of culling, which is supposed to be reduced or rescued to some extent providing moderate approaches of control are adopted scientifically. .In this project, an analytical framework of control of outbreak of acute animal epidemic under the circumstance of information asymmetry is to be established utilizing theory of regulation economics; the shock to the livestock and poultry industry caused by outbreak of acute animal epidemic is to be analyzed wielding shock model in the field of reliability theory; the injury to the livestock and poultry industry caused by excessive control as well as salvability is to be investigated via technical analysis of ex post tracking plus evaluation of animal epidemic by means of health economics; the selection of moderate control measures of outbreak of animal epidemic within the resource constraints is to be researched through simulation of salvability based on the NAADSM application; the implementation path of alleviating the industrial injury induced by excessive control of outbreak of acute animal epidemic is hence to be explored. .This project, which intends to reveal the law of moderate control of outbreak of animal epidemic, coupled with the mitigation of the industrial injury brought about by excessive control, is conducive to the scientific determination and stipulation of burden sharing and compensation standard of industrial injury induced by excessive control of outbreak of animal epidemic, as well as the facilitation of concern from specialists of animal disease control and prevention over the industrial injury caused by excessive control of outbreak of animal epidemic.

在突发动物疫情防控中，普遍存在“宁可错杀三千”的管控过度现象，过大控制范围、过重扑杀都造成不必要的产业损失；如果采用科学有效的适度管控疫情方法，是可能减少过度管控、并挽救部分产业损失。.本项目运用规制经济学理论和方法构建信息不对称下突发重大动物疫情管控研究的分析框架；用可靠性理论的“冲击模型”分析突发重大动物疫情对我国畜禽养殖业的冲击影响；通过疫情事后跟踪技术分析和疫情卫生经济学评估，研究突发重大疫情管控的产业损害及其“可挽救性”；基于NAADSM的突发重大动物疫情管控“可挽救性”模拟分析，研究资源约束下突发疫情管控措施的适度性选择；探讨减轻突发疫情管控产业损害的实现路径。.项目研究意在揭示突发疫情管控的适度性规律、探索减少过度管控的产业损害，有助于养殖业保险中科学厘定突发动物疫情管控产业损害的责任分担与赔付水平；同时促进动物疾控技术专家对疫情产业损害的高度关注。

禁养区政策实施使我国畜禽生产的疫情防控得到进一步强化，突如其来的非洲猪瘟更是让生猪养殖企业遭受严酷疫情防控措施造成的产业损害，也导致新一轮猪周期的价格剧烈波动、高位运行。项目研究突发重大疫情对畜禽养殖业的冲击影响，以畜禽市场价格异常波动为产业损害特征，探索超常管理的疫情管控措施（包括扑杀、区域隔离等）的产业损害，从宏观层面研究突发疫情引致的畜禽产品价格市场波动风险及其风险溢出效应。研究发现：禽流感疫情媒体报道对肉鸡价格波动的影响具有明显的门限效应；禁养区政策倒逼生猪养殖规模化进程，突发重大疫情弱化了规模养殖对生猪价格波动的平缓效应，中等规模养殖经营最有利于生猪价格平稳性；突发疫情事件的消费者网络关注引致畜禽产品价格风险的空间溢出。.研究成果的应用价值：突发疫情事件舆情的积极管控，有利于促进消费者的市场理性预期的形成；突发疫情造成重大产业损害时，适度调整管控措施、促进畜禽养殖生产保供给。