基于规模优势的大国经济增长模型与实证研究

By means of theory and examples, this project, based on the core strength of a large country- large scale, aims to explore systematically and deeply the effect and mechanism by which the scale of a country can promote the economic growth.First of all, on the basis of the dipiction of stylized facts, and directed by Dixit-Stiglitz Model frame, the research introduces models of economic growth which is constructed by size advantages in large-sized countries, to analyze the special mechanism by which the size advantages promote the economic growth through the deepening of division of labor, industrial transference, stimulating domestic demand, the export scale, technology innovation and other factors. Secondly, the project will use the data from typical countries and China to test empirically the models, and analyze the conditions on which that size advantages can promote the economic growth in large sized-countries in order to reveal the degree and limiting factors of its implementation in China. Finally, by integrating the reality in China into the design, it comes up with the strategic mentality and some suggestions for policies to promote the rapid and continuous economic development of a large country by means of the strength of scale.

本项目基于大国经济发展的核心优势- - 规模优势，运用理论与实证相结合的方法，系统而深入地研究国家规模促进经济增长的作用和机理。首先，在刻画典型化事实的基础上，以迪克西特-斯蒂格利茨模型框架为指导，引入规模优势构建大国经济增长模型群，分析规模优势通过深化分工、产业推移、内需拉动、出口规模和技术创新等因素促进经济增长的特殊性机理；其次，利用典型大国和中国的数据进行实证检验，分析规模优势促进大国经济增长的条件，揭示在我国实现的程度及制约因素；最后，结合中国实际设计利用规模优势促进大国经济快速持续发展的战略思路，提出相应的政策建议。

本项目比较系统地研究了大国经济的特征、基于规模优势的大国经济增长模型以及国家规模影响经济增长的实证检验。结果发现：大国经济的核心特征在于其规模性、多元性和内源性，大国经济发展的典型型式是以内需为主的发展型式，大规模国家可以实现国内要素的供需均衡；国家规模对经济增长优势有显著影响，国家综合优势的形成与国家基础发展能力、自然资源禀赋、人力资本和技术能力相关，其中前三项的贡献最大；居民消费对经济增长有明显的规模效应，国内市场规模扩张可以促进出口产业结构的多元化，但需要建立完善的市场经济体制。这些结论有助于发展中大国选择基于内需的经济全球化战略，通过推进市场化导向的改革培育完善的制度环境，以创新驱动实现经济转型发展。