实现要素供需均衡的大国经济模型与实证研究

The project arms to test the existence of supply and demand equilibrium effect of large countries’ factors and its conditions from two purely natural features of large countries: land area and population , using methodologies in modern economics, based on the analytical framework of Walrasian General Equilibrium Model. Then, the consumer equilibrium model, firm equilibrium model and market equilibrium model will be constructed under the economic conditions of large countries. The mechanism by which large countries realize their factor’s supply and demand equilibrium, and the mechanism by which resources and market size affect large countries’ industry system, and by which large countries realize their complementary advantages through factor transferring  from one area to another will be analysed. At the same time, the data from typical large countries and small countries will be used to test the models empirically. Finally, strategic ideas and policy suggestions will be proposed for China to take large countries’ advantages, and to realize its economic transition and coordinated development.

本项目拟运用现代经济学研究方法，从大国的人口规模和土地面积两个纯自然特征出发，在瓦尔拉斯一般均衡框架下对大国要素供需均衡效应的存在性及存在的条件进行证明，并构建大国经济条件下的消费者均衡、厂商均衡和市场均衡模型，分析大国经济实现要素供需均衡的机理，以及大国资源和市场规模影响国家产业体系的机理，通过区域间要素转移实现优势互补的机理。同时，利用典型大国和典型小国的数据进行实证研究，在此基础上提出中国发挥大国优势、实现经济转型和协调发展的战略思路及政策建议。

从大国的人口规模和土地面积两个初始特征出发，基于大国优势理论、交易成本机制、消费规模效应、工业发展机制视角构建了大国要素供需均衡的理论机制与模型框架。研究得出以下重要结果：其一，中国作为后发大国具有大国的综合优势，包括生产要素、产业结构、技术创新等方面的比较优势、后发优势和规模优势，应充分利用大国综合优势，形成经济可持续发展的动力源泉。其二，中国是典型的后发大国，在现代化进程中走过了一条通过引进发达国家的先进技术进行模仿创新，从追赶到超越的道路。大国不仅要依靠庞大的市场规模拉动产业发展，而且要通过培育关键核心技术形成竞争优势。