强竞争条件下水库群服务于生态的协调调度模式研究

The water shortage situation in northern China is especially severity. There are competitive water use among different water-using sectors of reservoirs to some extent. The contradiction among various stakeholders has becoming increasingly apparent. With the implementation of ecological civilization construction, ecological water demand has been more and more concerned, but the question that where the ecological water comes from is one of key problems to be solved. Under the intensive competition, there is an eager need for joint exploiting potentialities of reservoir groups and adaptive coordination among different stakeholders. According to the research ideas of problem recognition, coordinated mechanism, boundary definition, scheme design, and decision evaluation, the research proposes the interval coordinated mechanism of reservoir groups and multi-stakeholder to respond to the intensive competition. The interval boundary is initially defined to ensure the basic interests of different stakeholders. The feasible solution set of ecological operation is established based on the game theory and machine learning technology. The method of scheme comparison advantage degree of multi-attribute comprehensive decision evaluation is used to select the optimal scheme, the coordination scheme is obtained by feedback correction. The coordinated operation mode of reservoir groups servicing the ecology under the intensive competition is finally set up. In this research, the subdivision application of reservoir storage capacities and layered water use of stakeholders is adopted to achieve the interval coordination. The coordination scheme is formed gradually in the refining process of feasibility and applicability. The presented coordinated operation mode is applied in the topical study region. The research results give consideration to both the reasonable exploitation of water resource and ecological environment so as to put the interests of all parties into practice, and to make the ecological operation scientific and reasonable.

我国北方流域及区域大都资源性缺水，各水库综合用水部门之间存在着不同程度的竞争用水，各利益主体之间矛盾突出；随着生态文明建设，更加重了生态服务的需水，水从哪里来？强竞争条件下，转向水库群联合挖潜；多利益主体之间要适应性协调。按照“问题识别→协调机制→边界确定→方案拟定→决策评价”的思路，建立适应强竞争条件的水库群与多利益主体区间化协调机制；初定区间边界，确保各利益主体基本利益；基于博弈论与机器学习技术，建立生态调度可行方案集；采用多属性综合决策中的方案对比优势度决策法进行方案优选，反馈修正，得到协调方案；最终构建强竞争条件下水库群服务于生态的协调调度模式。本研究通过库容分区运用、利益主体分层用水，实现区间化协调，使方案从可行到适用再到实用，选典型研究区域，在水资源合理开发利用的基础上兼顾生态环境，让各利益主体的利益在协调中落实，使生态调度科学合理。

我国北方流域及区域大都资源性缺水，各水库综合用水部门之间存在着不同程度的竞争用水，各利益主体之间矛盾突出；随着生态文明建设，更加重了生态服务的需水，水从哪里来？强竞争条件下，转向水库群联合挖潜；多利益主体之间要适应性协调。本项目从利益主体的用水特点出发，建立了适应强竞争条件的水库群与多利益主体区间化协调机制；在协调机制的指导下，提出了基于区间化和规制化理念的河湖生态流量新内涵；采用层次化用水方法确定了利益主体区间边界，建立了利益主体生态调度博弈区间；在博弈区间内，构建了水库群多利益主体生态调度模型；基于可行的调度策略集，确定了不同边界控制情景下水库群协调调度方案；最终构建了强竞争条件下水库群服务于生态的协调调度模式。以陕西省渭河关键河段为研究对象，开展了渭河关键河段水库群多利益主体生态调度研究，在边界控制情景1时，宝鸡峡水库没有推荐调度方案，魏家堡水利枢纽的推荐调度方案为发电服从灌溉调度模式，以分时段生态流量作为河道内生态环境需水要求，供水优先次序为灌溉（引水发电）优先于生态；边界控制情景2时，宝鸡峡水库推荐调度方案为发电服从灌溉调度模式，以分时段生态流量作为河道内生态环境需水要求，供水优先次序为生态优先于灌溉（引水发电），魏家堡水利枢纽推荐调度方案为发电服从灌溉调度模式，以分时段生态流量作为河道内生态环境需水要求，供水优先次序为灌溉（引水发电）优先于生态。研究成果为水库群多利益主体生态调度提供一套切实可行的方案，让各利益主体的利益在协调中落实，使生态调度更加科学合理。