基于多主体仿真模型的碳排放权交易政策效果研究

In order to promote carbon reductions, China proposed to develop low carbon economy in 2007 and plans to establish a nationwide carbon emissions trading (CET) mechanism in 2017. The emission allowances allocation problem is one of the main challenges in Chinese CET market constructing. Based on previous studies, this project aims to formulate a multi-agent-based model, which considering both the different carbon emission performance (effective and efficiency) of different industries and different carbon allowances allocation mechanism, to investigate the impacts of different CET designs from threes aspects including the amount of carbon reductions, economic impact and the cost of carbon reductions. The method of undesirable outputs SBM DEA model is used to evaluate the potential carbon reductions of different industries. A simulation experiment will be conducted to find out how different carbon allowances allocation mechanisms impact the effectiveness of carbon emission trading market, especially the influence on different industries. Therefore, the applicable condition for each carbon allowances allocation mechanisms can be evaluated by comparing the different influences. These results are useful for the government to choose right carbon allowances allocation mechanisms, to promote the establishment of dynamic adjustment of the carbon allowances allocation mechanisms, to propose compensation policies for different industries for their influences due to the design of CET mechanism. The purposes of this project aim to construct the right CET mechanism which keeps a balance between the goal of carbon reductions and economy growth, a balance between the goal of the national country and every industry, as well as a balance between the effectiveness of carbon reductions and the cost of carbon reductions.

为推进碳减排，我国将于2017年推出面向全国的碳排放权交易市场。针对现有碳交易政策效果研究的不足，本项目充分考虑不同行业的减排效率与减排潜力差异对碳交易主体行为的影响，构建基于Multi-Agent的碳排放权交易仿真模型，以配额分配机制为切入点，从碳减排量、对碳排放主体的经济影响以及减排成本三个角度分析不同配额分配方式下碳排放权交易政策作用于不同产业的政策效果，以更好的指导我国统一配额交易市场的配额分配制度选择，推动建立配额分配的动态调整机制，并结合不同产业的碳排放现状、碳减排潜力与碳减排效率提出建立针对不同产业的差异化的政策补偿方案。研究的核心旨在推动构建兼顾碳减排与经济发展、兼顾市场整体的总量目标（全国层面的碳排放控制最优）与单一行业的局部目标（不同行业的碳排放控制最优）、兼顾碳减排目标的可实现性（效果）与最优实现成本（效率）均衡的碳排放权交易政策。

本项目主要围绕构建基于Multi-Agent的碳排放权交易仿真模型及其政策效果开展研究，其目的在于均衡考虑碳减排政策效果的减排作用和经济价值，主要研究结论及成果包括：.1.从碳减排效率和减排潜力两个角度对我国不同地区和不同产业的碳排放现状进行性了分析，结果表明，尽管我国的碳排放总量增长速度得到有效控制，但碳减排效率实际则处于波动发展。基于可减排规模、相对减排潜力以及减排重要性三个角度的评估表明，我国不同地区及产业之间存在显著的差距，政策重点和着力点都应该有所差异。.2. 构建了基于MAS的碳排放权交易系统模型，通过对碳排放权交易机制的设计，限定碳排放主体的行为规则和相互作用，模拟排放主体为实现达标排放而采取的交易策略及其所带的影响，并以细分行业为目标对象进行了仿真分析。.3.提出了五种配额分配情景并对不同情景的效果进行了仿真分析，结果表明，混合分配机制下低强度的配额递减方案的单位碳排放成本最小，能够同时实现达标排放和经济发展受损最小的双赢目标。在考虑边际减排效果和减排成本的条件下，碳排放配额的下降速度存在一个有效区间，过快的配额降低速度不一定能实现最优的CO2减排。因此，我国在初期应当采取相对宽松的配额总量政策并适当提高免费分配的比例。.4.基于前面研究的成果，提出我国碳交易市场配额分配机制构建的基本思路和演化路径，并对促进我国碳交易体系的有效执行提出了政策建议。