基于政府与农户响应的东北黑土区保护性耕作补贴标准动态测度研究

A reasonable conservation tillage subsidy motivates local governments and peasants to voluntarily participate in the conservation of arable land in the black soil region of Northeast China. However, the measurement of the subsidy lacks the comprehensive consideration of the relevance of the adoption decisions about the packages of practices, government revenue, varying opportunity cost. The main thought of our study will be designed as follows. The desirable subsidy will be measured according to the government revenue and the relationship between the subsidy and technology adoption rate. The relationship will be simulated by using the combination of multivariate Probit model and the two-stage method. The tranformed subsidy considering equity and efficency will be modified in allowance of the dynamics and the tolerance of government. The content of the study is shown in following steps. Based on status quo of the subsidy and survey of the policy response of the peasants, we will compute govenrnent revenue from the perspective of the policy boundary, measure and decompose the mobility of the subsidy. And we will analyze combination decisions of the technology adoption using the combination of multivariate Probit model and the two-stage method, optimize the subsidy considering equity and efficency, and build the dynamic measure model of the subsidy by introducing the random factor, and then we will simulate the technology adoption rate and soil conservation quantity. Finally, we will propose the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The study will realize the rationalization and mobility of the subsidy in order to promote the technology adoption and promotion, which will provide reference in theory and decision basis for establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism of the subsidy.

合理的保护性耕作补贴标准是激励东北黑土区政府与农户自愿参与耕地保护的关键，而现有补贴标准的测度仍存在未综合考虑技术采用决策相关、政府收益、机会成本时变等问题。本项目基于政府与农户响应视角，使用多元Probit法和两阶段法相结合模拟农户政策响应，结合政府收益测量农户合意的补贴标准适度区间，再考虑公平效率性、动态性和政府承受力进行调整。具体为：在厘清补贴现状与实地调研基础上，从理论和实证两个方面，基于政策边界核算政府收益、进行补贴收入流动性测量和分解，并使用多元Probit法和两阶段法相结合分析补贴异质性对农户组合技术采用的影响，构建兼顾公平和效率的补贴优化模型，引入随机因子构建补贴标准动态测度模型并测算，最后在三种情景下模拟技术采用率和土壤涵养量来评价模型，从而提出针对性的对策建议。拟通过本项目研究实现补贴标准的合理化和动态化，以促进技术采用和推广，为建立补贴标准动态调整机制提供决策依据。

为了解决当前保护性耕作技术采用率低下和补贴标准测度存在问题，本项目使用双变量Probit模型模拟农户采用秸秆还田+深松整地联合技术行为，使用CVM法，确定农户受偿意愿WTA，利用线性规划和机会成本法估算效率型补贴标准，并通过构造公平度指数和动态调整系数进行调整。发现，保护性耕作补贴政策具有社会性，具有托底功能；补贴政策边界覆盖作业前补贴——农机购置补贴，补贴标准额度以机会成本和生态服务价值为上下阈值；农机购置补贴促进农业生产效益提升，经营规模和农机化贡献起调节作用；是否村干部、技术培训、耕地面积、是否参加合作社、补贴意愿等均对农户采用秸秆还田行为有显著影响，年龄、是否村干部、技术培训变量对农户采用深松整地行为有显著影响，而深松补贴意愿对农户深松整地决策没有影响；秸秆还田WTA为114.36元/亩，深松整地WTA为101.56元/亩；最优机具台数下，购买农机作业服务成本、自行作业成本情景下机会成本分别为92.668元、89.128元，更接近实际补贴标准60元，说明结合线性规划方法估算具有一定的准确性；本溪补贴标准过高，公平性有所偏差；在实际作业成本、购买农机作业服务成本、自行作业成本三种情景下本溪动态调整补贴标准为130.28元、53.92元、51.86元。最后提出构建和完善保护性耕作补贴标准动态测度体系的对策。项目共资助9篇研究论文发表，4篇SCI检索，1篇CSSCI检索，1篇EI检索，3篇中文核心。培养毕业硕士研究生6人。