基于SEM移民驱动力定量的丹江口典型地区土地覆盖格局多目标优化

Danjiangkou reservoir is important part of south-to-north water transfer project. Its ecological environment is sensitive, land resources are limited. How to solve the immigration production, eutrophication of water bodies and water loss and soil erosion at the same time, has important significance to achieve sustainable development and ecological civilization of reservoir area. To solve the tough issues, applicants in the use of land use Structure and landscape pattern optimization method based on the years' work at the region of the applicant's unit. Making effective rules of human's driving force of LUCC, paying attention to geography, environmental science, mathematical statistics and other disciplines of interdisciplinary, and achieving multi-objective coordination to solve regional key issues for the purpose. This study was divided into three parts: Ⅰ. The driving rules of immigration to LUCC Gathering regional society, economy, policy, land use and other information，accessing to relevant factors of immigration driving force of LUCC through the questionnaire survey, using the SEM to calculate the coefficient of each index.Ⅱ The soil and water loss effect and water body eutrophication risk of LUCC Select the relevant factors as key elements of evaluation of regional land loss effect through the former study of the applicant. The PCA will be used to build the LUCC -soil erosion risk assessment system, and the result will be shown in GIS. We will obtain the production or carrying capacity of different land use from collaborators. Considering Land use landscape pattern have specific relationship to eutrophication. The applicant will set up regression models to make quantitative assessment of the influence from land use and landscape patterns to eutrophication. Ⅲ Landuse and landscape patterns optimization on multi-purpose Geo-simulation method will be used in this part to simulate the LUCC process under the influence from the immigrant. The results from partⅠand part Ⅱ will be introduced in the calculating. And the optimized landscape pattern will be selected by using the SEM based evaluation system.

移民安置后的生产恢复是南水北调中线工程丹江口库区面临的关键民生问题。同时，水源地丹江口库区生态环境敏感，土地资源有限，如何协调解决移民生产、水体局部富营养化和水土流失威胁这三个突出问题，对实现库区可持续发展和生态文明有着重要的意义。申请者以土地覆盖利用格局优化为解决方法，以申请单位在该地区开展的多年工作为基础，以解决人对土地覆盖变化驱动的有效规则化为学科主线，注重地理学、环境科学、数理统计学等学科的跨学科交叉，以多目标协调解决区域关键问题为目的，分三个专题展开研究：移民-土地覆盖变化（LUCC）驱动机制研究；LUCC的水土流失、水体富营养化风险研究；多目标问题之间的关系协调和最优方案选择。项目的科学目标是寻求客观的，更符合实际情况的人类驱动对LUCC驱动规则的转换参数，协调多目标之间的关系，从而为实现库区土地覆盖格局优化、库区可持续发展提供科学有效的依据。

移民安置后的生产恢复是南水北调中线工程丹江口库区面临的关键民生问题。同时，水源地丹江口库区生态环境敏感，土地资源有限，如何协调解决移民生产、面源污染导致的水体局部富营养化和水土流失威胁这三个突出问题，对实现库区可持续发展和生态文明有着重要的意义。本研究以土地覆盖利用格局优化为解决方法，以申请单位在该地区开展的多年工作为基础，以解决人对土地覆盖变化驱动的有效规则化为学科主线，综合地理学、环境科学、数理统计学等学科的交叉，以多目标协调解决区域关键问题为目的，开展了以下研究：移民-土地覆盖变化（LUCC）驱动机制研究；LUCC的水土流失、面源污染风险研究；多目标问题之间的关系协调和最优方案选择。通过以上研究内容获取了更符合实际情况的人类驱动对LUCC驱动规则的转换参数，进而对多目标之间的关系进行协调，最终得到了优化后的库区典型区域土地利用格局，从而为实现库区土地覆盖格局优化、库区可持续发展提供科学有效的依据。