基于政府绩效视角的交通PPP项目影响效应与财政风险研究

With respect to the severe debt risk of China's local government, the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) has been promoted to the overall strategic level of government reform. Considering local government's fiscal performance, this proposal chooses the representative traffic PPP project as the study case, and establishes a quantitative analyzing framework for impact evaluation and fiscal risk prevention of traffic PPP project. Based on the massive micro-level data of traffic PPP project, multi-dimensional quantitative analysis is made to study the comprehensive impact and spatial spillover effects of traffic PPP project on the regional development. The spatial distribution of traffic PPP project investment is analyzed by using non-linear threshold regression and thermal map method, and its dynamic association with regional fiscal expenditure constraint is revealed to identify mismatched space so as to warn potential risk. Furthermore, the fiscal risk KMV model and Copula model of the PPP project are established. The distance of default of the government recessive debt and the probability of default of the PPP project are simulated under different financial constraints. Then, the stress testing for fiscal risk infection scale of traffic PPP projects is conducted respectively, considering crisis source situation of a single impact and that of systemic shock. In practice, the measurement approach for fiscal risk of traffic PPP project designed in this proposal can be used as a useful tool for government to warn potential fiscal risk.

面对中国地方政府债务风险的严峻形势，政府和社会资本合作（PPP）模式被提升至改革全局战略高度。本项目选择具有代表性的交通领域，立足于政府绩效视角，量化评价交通PPP项目影响效应和财政风险。在构建交通PPP项目绩效监测、影响评价和风险测度的理论框架基础上，采集交通PPP项目大样本微观数据，多维度定量分析交通PPP项目综合影响和空间溢出效应；利用非线性门槛回归和热力图方法，可视化分析交通PPP项目投资空间分布规律，挖掘其与区域财政约束的动态关联性，识别错配空间并提示风险；进一步，构建交通PPP项目风险测度KMV模型和Copula模型，对不同约束条件下交通PPP项目财政违约概率和违约距离进行仿真模拟，设计单一冲击和系统性冲击危机源情境，对交通PPP项目群的财政风险传染速度和联合损失进行压力测试。本项目拓展了学术界关于PPP项目影响和风险的研究路径，在实践上可为政府提供PPP项目财政风险预警工具。

本项目立足于中国地方政府债务形势严峻的现实背景，突出政府绩效管理目标，选择具有行业代表性的交通领域，量化评价交通PPP项目影响效应与财政风险，为政府提供PPP项目财政风险预警工具。课题组围绕以下三大模块内容展开研究：（1）交通PPP项目投资时空特征与影响效应。多角度定量分析交通PPP项目投资空间分布动态演变规律、对区域发展的影响程度及其空间溢出效应，为解决PPP项目影响评价难量化问题提供新的视角和方法。（2）交通PPP项目投资区域选择与财政约束。将中国财政分权与财政约束特点纳入评价框架，采用非线性门槛回归模型和热力图方法，揭示中国交通PPP项目影响因素、投资区域选择与财政约束关联性，深入挖掘并解析极具中国特色的交通PPP项目投资区域选择动机，提供来自中国的经验证据。（3）交通PPP项目财政风险测度。构建交通PPP财政风险KMV模型和Copula模型，对不同约束条件下交通PPP项目的财政风险传染距离及其违约概率进行仿真模拟和压力测试，实现交通PPP项目财政风险量化测度与预警。.课题组充分发挥投资学、财政学、交通工程等跨专业优势互补的特点，对研究内容进行多维度探讨。项目负责人以通讯作者在IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks and Learning Systems（中科院一区TOP期刊，IF=10.451）、Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies（中科院一区TOP期刊，IF=8.355）等国际权威期刊发表SCI论文6篇、EI期刊论文及学术会议论文5篇，已授权发明专利2项，完成专著2部待出版。课题组高效完成了预期研究成果，目前有系列高水平论文投稿在审。