供需综合视角下大城市中产阶层化演进机理与效应研究——以南京内城为例

Gentrification has been an important strategy of deep urbanization and spatial reproduction in the world. However, with Chinese characteristics during transition period, the slash-and-build gentrification has been deeply influencing the reconstruction of urban social space, and it virtually worth researching of its evolving process, driving mechanism and complex effect, which is quite different from that in the West. The project tries to break through the limitation of the study only on the supply side of the built environment, and it emphasizes the complementary and integration work between the supply side and the demand side, by introducing the analysis on the demand side, including the cultural attribute and consumption choice of the gentrified group; and then constructs theoretical analysis framework of gentrification in big cities. Taking the inner city of Nanjing as case study, it provides a deep description on the spatial temporal pattern and evolution process of gentrification, relying on multi-dimensional data of housing removal and resettlement, land-use right transfer, housing transaction and residential migration. It adopts Structural Equation Modeling to explore driving factors and identify the dominant forces at different developmental stages, and further analyses the formation and evolution mechanism of gentrification. With Situated Cellular Agent and Multi-Agent Modeling, it carries out exploratory studies on dynamic fit and trend prediction of gentrification, and checks its periodic fluctuation law. Finally, it puts forward corresponding control suggestions on the basis of the comments on its comprehensive effects. We are trying to promote gentrification research in China in line with the international frontier by providing Chinese perspective and example.

中产阶层化已成为世界范围内深度城市化和空间再生产的重要策略，而转型期最具中国特色的“拆建型”中产阶层化，已然并正在深刻影响着城市社会空间重构进程，其异于西方的演化过程、驱动机制和复杂效应值得深入研究。本项目试图突破从建成环境供给侧单向度研究的局限性，导入对中产阶层化群体文化属性与消费选择等需求维度的分析，强调供需两端的互补与融合，构建大城市中产阶层化理论分析框架。以南京内城为样本区域，依托城市拆迁安置、土地出让、住宅交易、居住迁移等多维数据，深度刻画中产阶层化时空格局与演进过程；采用结构方程模型探究其驱动要素及甄别不同发育阶段的主导力量，解析中产阶层化形成演化机理；利用多智能体结合元胞自动机模型，探索性开展中产阶层化过程动态拟合与趋势预测研究，检验其周期性波动规律；最后在评判其综合效应的基础上提出相应管控建议。通过提供中国视角和范例，推动我国中产阶层化研究对话与接轨国际前沿。

中产阶层化是一种深度城市化和社会空间分异重构现象，是国内外城市社会地理学的热点问题和前沿领域。围绕我国中产阶层化有待深入研究的科学问题，本项目以具有中国特色的中产阶层化为研究重点，以较能代表中国大城市一般模式和共性规律的南京内城为样本区域，结合宏观与微观、供给端与需求端，从多尺度、多维度、多角度重点开展以下研究：一是描绘中产阶层化时空过程、类型特征及演变趋向；二是融合地方政府经营城市、房地产商资本增值和中产阶层经济、社会、文化需求等驱动力量，分析导致中产阶层化的驱动机制；三是对中产阶层化发展趋势及后效进行预测评估，最后针对突出问题提出切实可行的优化调控措施。.研究成果主要有：（1）通过对Neil Smith“租差”模型的借鉴与修正，提出我国城市“租差”是由土地公有和房屋贬值产生的“实际租差”和房地产持续快速增值产生的“预期租差”两部分组成；（2）南京的中产阶层化现象具有挖潜土地价值、提升城市功能品质等积极作用，但也可能产生新的城市社会空间发展不均衡问题；（3）地方政府、资本联手对“商业租差”的追逐，以及年轻、高收入群体日益增长的文化消费需求，从供需两端驱动着商业中产阶层化过程；（4）由教育驱动的城市学区中产阶层化效应值得持续关注和积极规导，需要不断缩小校际教育质量差异推进城市内部教育机会和教育质量公平；（5）中产阶层化过程中被迫迁往城市边缘区住宅的中低收入家庭，可能沦落为低等级“住房阶层”。.通过本项目研究，积累了南京历年土地交易、房产交易、拆迁安置数据，获取了南京地理空间属性数据和居民迁居问卷调查数据。通过全景扫描与多维透视我国大城市中产阶层化问题，创新了相关理论与技术方法，拓展深化了相关领域研究并为国际中产阶层化研究提供“中国样板”；同时为尽量消弭中产阶层化过程中可能出现的负面效应，有针对性地提出了政策调控建议，引导城市社会空间走向更加公平与均衡。