虚拟社会演化的唯象分析与计算社会物理学研究

The evolution and stability of complex socio-economic systems are important topics in sociophysics. However, such reseach is hard to conduct since it is almost impossible to obtain the data that detailedly records the evolution of real societies. Fortunately, Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games (MMORPGs) provide us a novel platform with ideal data collections. Here, we propose to perform phenomenological analysis of the self-organized evolution of virtual societies based on theories and tools from complexity sciences to unveil avatars' behaviors and social organizations' dynamic properties. We then aim at building a computational model of social evolution based on avartars' behaviors and calibrate it with empirical properties. Through computational experiments in artificial societies, we try to understand the micro mechnisms of the emerged macro properties and to predict the evolution path and stability of virtual socienties. We will also attempt to explore the response patterns of virtual societies to external stimulus and perform cases studies by taking virtual epidemics as an example. The implementation of this reseach will deepen our understanding of the micro mechnisms of social evolution and stability in sociophysics, promote the development of computational sociophysics, and provide theoretical guides for the efficient control of epidemics.

复杂社会经济系统的演化及其稳定性是社会物理学研究的重要问题。然而，由于记录真实社会演化难度很大，使相关研究的开展颇受限制，而大型多人在线角色扮演游戏（MMORPG）则为研究者提供了一个全新的数据平台。本项目拟采用复杂性科学的理论与方法，对MMORPG中虚拟社会的自组织演化进行唯象学研究，揭示虚拟人行为和社会组织演化的动态规律及其内在联系；构建基于虚拟人行为的虚拟社会演化模型，采用唯象分析结果进行模型校准；通过人工社会计算实验，探索导致宏观规律涌现的微观机制，预测虚拟社会演化的路径以及组织稳定性；通过虚拟社会真人实验，阐明虚拟社会系统在外界扰动下的响应规律，并以虚拟疾病的传播为案例进行虚实互动的研究。本项目的顺利实施，将深化社会物理学对复杂社会系统演化及其稳定性的研究，推动计算社会物理学的发展，并可对传染病传播的有效控制提供理论指导。

复杂社会经济系统的演化及其稳定性是社会物理学研究的重要问题。本项目采用复杂性科学的理论与方法，对MMORPG中虚拟社会的自组织演化进行唯象学研究，揭示虚拟人行为和社会组织演化的动态规律及其内在联系。本项目的顺利实施，将深化社会物理学对复杂社会系统演化及其稳定性的研究，推动计算社会物理学的发展，并可对传染病传播的有效控制提供理论指导。通过本项目的研究，已发表标注的SCI/SSCI收录论文11篇，另有多篇论文将陆续投稿发表。