中国食品产业链转型中的能源使用与碳足迹研究

We propose to study the impacts of energy cost shocks and carbon footprint regulation on food supply chain transformation or modernization, and vice versa, supply chain modernization on energy intensity and carbon footprint of the food chain in China. This allows us to inform policymakers of whether energy cost and regulation "shocks" speed or slow food system modernization, and whether that modernization saves China energy, and thus a vector of pressure on food prices, and reduces the carbon footprint, and thus environmental pressure. Moreover, we model how the combination of these two - energy shocks and supply chain transformation - impact key outcomes of interest to the food security and welfare of the Chinese people - food prices and energy intensity. These issues are timely as China's food supply chain (farms, processors, and traders) are going through a period of carbon footprint and energy use regulation, and oil price shocks combined with steep wage increases. At the same time, the food supply chains are rapidly transforming - with the rapid rise of supermarkets (the fastest in the world, in history), consolidation and technological change in the processing industry (both with large scale firms emerging fast, but also with local mills and milk processing firms upgrading and transforming), and the wholesale sector changing, with direct procurement by wholesale market brokers, reduction of the role of village traders, and rapid development of modern logistics firms. Moreover, beside these structural changes, there are technological changes like capital intensification with plant scale increases, institutional change like implementation of safety and quality standards that require investments and practice changes, and organizational changes like geographic-lengthening and transaction-shortening of supply chains. These changes are occurring in both rice and dairy sectors, which we study.

本课题的研究内容如下：一方面，能源成本冲击和碳排放政策对食品供应链转型或现代化的影响；另一方面，供应链的现代化对中国能源利用和碳足迹的影响。在实践上可以使决策者更好地了解能源成本和碳排放管制冲击到底是加速或减缓食品体系的现代化，同时也将回答食品体系的现代化能否真正节约能源，进而缓解食品价格上涨压力以及这种现代化能否缓解减排压力从而益于环境等问题。此外，我们将模拟能源冲击和供应链转型这两者是如何结合起来共同影响我们极为关心的食品安全和食品价格以及能源使用等问题。

近年来，随着我国现代化、工业化、城镇化进程不断加快，一方面食品供应链快速转型，另一方面，作为重要生产要素的能源消费快速增长，能源成本不断上升。供应链转型、能源使用与碳排放以及食品价格成为三个独立存在又相互影响的问题。本研究试图通过理论建模与实证分析来探究这三者之间的相互关系。据我们所知，这是第一个基于全供应链角度的微观调研数据考察食品供应链转型、能源使用与碳排放以及食品价格之间关系的研究。通过量化我国农业食品供应链（从生产到零售）中的直接和间接能源使用量，我们发现能源成本（包括直接能源和间接能源）在总价值链成本中占有的份额越来越高，并且随着食品供应链的现代化，这一比重将继续上升。对食品供应链能源成本进一步细分可以发现，非农部分的能源成本远远高于农业部分的能源成本。我们研究还表明，食品系统中的农场和非农场的能源成本与食品供应链（包括供应链整体及各个环节）的转型程度高度相关。我国食品供应链正从传统分散型供应链向现代化供应链转型，部门环节出现资本密集化，交易地域扩大，运输区域延长，在更高级的情况下，每个部门至少在非农业部门进行整合和规模增长。此外，马铃薯和鱼类这类易腐食品越来越依赖冷藏，以满足消费者去季节化需求。如果这些趋势继续下去，将会增加对价值链能源的依赖。另外，资本密集化、供应链环节的缩短和运输方式都可能影响能源效率，但影响方向并不确定。我们的研究还发现，能源作为一种重要的生产要素，价格上涨对于小农户不利，将小农户排除在现代供应渠道外，一定程度上促进了供应链向现代化规模化供应链转型。. 虽然能源成本和粮食成本在宏观文献中通常是相关的，但是我们的微观层面分析允许决策者更好的了解能源在供应链各环节的分布，能源与供应链转型之间的相互影响关系，帮助政策制定者找出能源脆弱性挑战和能源节约机会。