碳强度目标下可再生能源发电产业链的定价机制研究

The commercial application of the renewable energy can fulfil the goal of the carbon intensity under the economic growth, its prospect depends on the gap of the cost of the conventional energy, and the gap can be narrowed by designing rationally the pricing mechanism..This proposal tries to: .(1)study the desirable price contract of the multi-subjects in the condition of the fluctuation of power supply by clarifying "the value chain of carbon intensity" and according to this, design the pricing mechanism for the scales and the technoledges matching in the industrial chain, under the bound of the goal of carbon intensity and from the obligeation relationship of the multi-interests subjects in the renewable energy power industrial chain..(2) study how to influence the profit under the way of fit-in-tariff and quota trade based on the pricing mechanism, and therefore choose the operating ways which maximize the profit of the subjects in its industrial chain by synthetizing the factors such as the power type, region endowment, technical measure and the demand by comparing and quoting on the international experience..(3) study on the intertemporal dynamic price contract between multi-subjects therefore establish the price coupling mechanism of industries in the chain based on the cost effectiveness so as to give the suggestions for the adjustment the pricing mechanism dynamically by calculating the marginal rate of technical substitution of renewable and the conventional energy under the cost effectiveness which the pricing mechanism fit for the "learning by doing" and the "return of scale"..All the studies can provide the thoery bases and the practice guides for the medium and long term plan of the renewable energy power for the government under the bound of the goal of carbon intensity.

可再生能源商业化应用能够实现经济增长下的碳强度目标，但应用前景取决于其与常规能源发电成本之间的差距，而定价机制的合理设计对弥合两者的成本差距起着决定作用。课题以碳强度目标为约束，从可再生能源发电产业链的多方主体利益关系入手，通过厘清"碳强度价值链"，研究供电量波动条件下多方主体合意的价格契约，据此设计符合产业链规模匹配和技术衔接的定价机制；在此基础上，通过国际比较与经验借鉴，综合可再生能源的发电类型、地区禀赋、技术手段与地区需求等因素，研究强制并网和配额交易对节点收益的影响，从而选择基于主体利润最大化的执行方式；通过考察定价机制在"干中学"和规模报酬下的成本效应，测算可再生能源对常规能源的边际技术替代率，研究多方主体的跨期价格契约，由此制定基于成本效应的产业链价格联动机制，为定价机制实现动态调整提供建议。这些研究为政府制定碳强度目标约束下可再生能源发电的中长期规划提供理论依据和实践指南。

课题以“弃风”、“弃光”率持续维持在高位为现实背景，以碳强度目标为约束，以发电产业链中植入碳排放目标为前提，通过厘清“碳强度目标约束下基于产业链的价值增值链”，对多方主体进行SCP-R研究，从而确定发电商与电网、发电商与设备制造商等上下游产业链结点的利益关系；同时，考虑发电场地点的禀赋状况和气候条件、电网对电量需求状况，研究在电力供给和需求存在不确定性、间歇性和波动性的条件下，多方主体合意的价格契约，以及碳目标约束下上下游主体合意的利润分成比例；在此基础上，通过国际比较与经验借鉴，综合绿电类型、地点禀赋、技术手段与地区需求等因素，研究强制并网和配额交易两种方式对产业链上下游结点收益的影响，从而选择基于主体利润最大化的碳排放目标实现方式；进一步地，设计符合产业链规模匹配和技术衔接的定价机制；通过考察在“干中学”和规模报酬下的成本效应，研究多方主体的跨期价格契约，由此制定基于成本效应的产业链价格联动机制。.研究产生的重要研究成果和意义如下：(1)研究碳目标约束下多方主体“SCP-R”分析框架，为后续多方合意价格契约和利润分成比例设计提供了理论思路。(2)电网垄断市场结构的效率与福利损失测算结果，为打破电网垄断提供了现实理由。(3)对发电和电网的收益共享契约研究，形成了供需不确定条件下的利润分成比例；基于供给和电价不确定下的最优装机容量投资决策，为最大限度地减少弃风提供了投资依据。(4)研究发电设备制造商与发电商之间基于后市场服务的收益共享契约，为提高发电效率提供了基于商业模式的模型设计和均衡结果分析。(5)对绿电配额交易的研究，为中国开展配额交易提供经验借鉴和政策建议。(6)并网电价的研究为不同禀赋和气候条件的发电成本提供了核算方法和定价依据。研究的所有结果均可为政府制定碳强度目标约束下可再生能源发电的中长期规划提供理论依据和实践指南。