基于不完全信息博弈模型的航空碳税和碳关税政策应对策略研究

The EU aviation carbon tax policy and some developed countries' carbon tariff policies will have much influence on China's future development, not only on Chinese economy, but also on Chinese politics, diplomacy and international trade. Both Chinese government and Chinese scholars should pay more and more attention to these two issues. This project is going to systematically study the impact of those policies on Chinese economy and to study optimal strategies of China for responding those policies. The design mechanism of the aviation carbon tax policy of EU and the carbon tariff policies of some developed countries will be deeply analyzed and the probable levying methods will be investigated. Based on that, diverse game theory models with incomplete information will be developed to study the optimal response strategies about the aviation carbon tax policy of EU and the carbon tariff policies of those developed countries. Furthermore, the optimal response strategies derived from the game theory models will be evaluated synthetically by some synthetic evaluation models and then policy suggestions/recommendations will be designed after a synthetic evaluation of the possible optimal response strategies.

欧盟航空碳税政策和西方发达国家碳关税政策方案是未来中国发展需要特别关注的两个问题，涉及到政治、经济、外交、贸易等各个方面，将对中国未来发展产生重要影响。本项目将主要围绕欧盟航空碳税政策和西方发达国家碳关税政策对中国经济的影响以及如何应对来开展系统研究,分析比较欧盟航空碳税政策和西方发达国家碳关税政策的设计机理，调研欧盟航空碳税政策和西方发达国家碳关税政策可能的征收方式，建立多种不完全信息博弈模型来研究中国应对西方发达国家碳关税和欧盟航空碳税政策的最佳策略，并应用综合评价模型对用博弈模型生成的"最佳策略"进行综合评价，设计政策建议。

本项目综合集成不完全信息博弈模型、CGE模型、投入产出模型等方法，对碳关税和航空碳税政策及其应对策略进行了研究。出版专著1部，发表国内外重要学术期刊论文33篇，其中SCI和SSCI检索期刊论文20篇，国家自然科学基金委认定的管理科学重要学术期刊(A类)论文6篇。.在项目研究中首次提出了一个研究碳税、碳关税和航空碳税政策的系统分析框架；首次研究了碳关税博弈中，碳排放信息披露情况对国家和企业的影响；首次应用Stackelberg博弈模型和两阶段三方博弈模型比较研究了应对欧盟航空碳税政策的策略，得出了我国当前的最佳应对方案，理论上验证了我国采取的应对措施的正确性，并前瞻性地提出了未来航空碳税博弈的演化方向；建立可计算一般均衡模型测算了碳税和碳关税政策对中国经济的影响。此外还对与项目相关的能源消费、技术效率和碳排放交易市场等问题进行了研究。