我国国民经济中隐含石油的测算、路径分解与出口结构优化研究

In recent years, China's dependence on foreign oil has increased rapidly, while the cost and price of oil imports and the pressure on stable production of domestic oil have increased continuously. Under such background, it has been very necessary and urgent for China to effectively utilize and manage its oil resources. From the perspective of embodied oil, and base on input-output theory, decision theory and so on, this subject plans to comprehensively calculate the embodied oil consumption in China's national economy, study historic changes and international comparisons of its scale and structure, decompose the flow path of embodied oil in domestic industries and foreign countries, and analyze the flow diagram of embodied oil; quantitatively evaluate the impact of embodied oil export on China's dependence on foreign oil and China's macro economy, and based on it, establish a multi-objective decision-making model for structure optimization of embodied oil export, and under consideration of China's affordable price, study the maximum decreased amount of embodied oil export and the ordination of the preferentially industries for embodied oil decreasing and the decreased amount; based on the research above, study the ways of actively managing embodied oil consumption in China's national economy from the perspective of reducing domestic consumption and broadening international sources of embodied oil. Focusing on the pressing strategic demand for oil in the 12th Five-Year Plan for national energy development, this subject intends to provide information support and decision reference from the perspective of embodied oil for China to manage its oil consumption better.

近年来，在我国石油对外依存度迅速提高、国内石油稳产压力持续增加、石油进口成本和代价不断加大的背景下，我国充分利用和管理好石油资源已经十分必要和紧迫。本项目基于隐含石油的视角，综合应用投入产出理论、决策理论等，全面核算我国国民经济中的隐含石油消费，研究其规模与结构的纵向历史变化和横向国际对比，对隐含石油在国内产业间和国外国家间流向的路径进行分解，分析隐含石油的国内外流向图；在定量研究我国隐含石油出口对石油对外依存度、宏观经济影响的基础上，建立隐含石油出口结构优化的多目标决策模型，研究中国可承受代价下隐含石油的最大出口降低量、优先下降行业及下降量排序；在此基础上，基于隐含石油"节流"的国内视角和"开源"的国际视角，对我国积极管理国民经济中隐含石油消费的对策进行研究。课题着眼于国家能源发展"十二五"规划中与石油相关的迫切战略需求，为我国更好地管理石油消费提供隐含石油视角下的信息支持和决策参考。

项目基于投入产出理论，在完善已有隐含能核算模型的基础上，对中国隐含石油进出口的规模进行了核算，对其行业和国家分布进行测算，并采用LMDI方法对影响隐含石油出口的因素进行结构分解；构建隐含石油流动的路径分解模型，通过编程识别影响我国隐含石油消费的关键产业关联系数以及关键产业路径；对隐含能的就业创造贡献进行测算，并对这些贡献的行业分布与隐含能出口的行业分布进行比较分析；在此基础上，基于投入产出分析和多目标规划的基本原理，构建隐含能进出口结构优化模型，在满足中国经济发展和社会就业稳定的前提下，研究如何通过贸易结构优化来减少隐含能的净出口规模。主要研究结果显示：中国隐含石油经历了从净进口到净出口，又回到净进口国的转变，中国隐含煤炭的净出口规模依然巨大，但在2011年以后已经呈现明显的下降趋势；隐含石油和隐含煤炭出口的国家分布方面存在显著差异；出口结构效应对降低隐含石油出口的作用开始体现，能源结构和能源强度效应在不断强化，而经济规模对增加隐含石油出口的效应开始减弱；中国对外贸易在造成大量隐含能出口的同时，也为经济发展、社会发展特别是就业稳定做出了大量贡献，研究得出中国隐含能出口的主要部门是高耗能部门，是主要的贸易出口部门，同时也是承载劳动力就业的主要部门。通过隐含能进出口结构优化模型得出，在无约束情景下，隐含能净出口的最大降低比例为19.99%，但造成的GDP损失率和失业率分别达到4.6%和9.01%；在基准约束情景下，隐含能净出口减少4.41%，造成的GDP损失率和失业率分别为0.47%和4.19%。因此，在当前中国经济结构下，仅通过进出口贸易结构的调整, 很难从根本上改变中国隐含能净出口的现状。课题研究在管理科学方法和模型、研究领域拓展等方面有利于丰富与隐含能相关的已有学术成果；同时，也有利于我国更好地从隐含能视角对能源消费进行管理，综合权衡经济发展、产业结构、贸易结构、就业创造、能源消费之间的多目标关系，为决策者提供信息参考和决策依据。