跨国运输走廊演化机理及其与边疆经济协同效应研究

The planning and construction of transnational transport corridors make the border areas become the forefront of opening to the world, and border areas obtain new opportunities of development. The connection mechanism between the transnational transportation corridor and the border economy is dynamic and complex. But now the in-depth research on these issues, such as the evolution mechanism of transnational transportation corridor and it’s synergistic effect with border economy is insufficient, and the border economic development relying on transnational transport corridor is lack of theoretical guidance. Firstly, the evolution model of transnational transport corridor is established based on the complex adaptive system theory, and the inherent evolution laws and the growth mechanism of transnational transport corridor could be obtained through computational experiments and simulation. Then, the border transportation accessibility is evaluated, and the formation mechanism of port traffic flow and the coupled features between border transportation accessibility and port traffic flow would be analyzed, then, the potential and conditions of the agglomeration effect of transnational transport corridor are obtained. At the same time, the dynamic structure and key performance index of the spatial effect of transnational transportation corridor would be analyzed, and the port spatial effect measurement model is established to study the spatial effect of the cross-border transport corridor. Finally, The connection mechanism and synergistic effect between transnational transportation corridor and border economy is simulated based on system dynamics theory, and the collaborative optimization method of border economy under the influence of transnational transportation corridor could be obtained, then the model would be verified by taking Yunnan province as an example.The research results could provide theoretical guidance for the planning of transnational transportation corridor and practical basis for the management of frontier bridgehead economic.

跨国运输走廊的规划建设使边疆地区成为我国对外开放前沿，获得发展的新机遇。跨国运输走廊与边疆经济的关联机制是动态而复杂的，目前对跨国运输走廊演化及其与边疆经济协同等问题缺乏深入研究，依托跨国运输走廊的边疆经济发展尚缺乏理论指导。本项目基于复杂适应系统理论对跨国运输走廊进行多主体建模和仿真，通过涌现获取跨国运输走廊演化规律和成长机理。然后，评估边疆交通可达性，分析口岸交通流量的形成机理及其与可达性的耦合协调特征，探索跨国运输走廊口岸集聚效应产生的潜力和条件。同时，解析跨国运输走廊口岸聚散效应的动力结构及关键表征指标，建立测度模型，研究跨国运输走廊时空演化的口岸空间效应和特征。最后，基于系统动力学理论对跨国运输走廊与边疆经济关联机制及耦合效应进行仿真，获取跨国运输走廊影响下的边疆经济协同优化方法，并以云南为例进行验证。研究结果可为跨国运输走廊规划提供理论依据，并为边疆桥头堡经济管理提供实践基础。

近年来，伴随着国际互联互通、兴边富民、沿边开放、“一带一路”倡议等的规划实施，我国跨境运输通道建设取得显著成效，已基本形成了向东北、西北和西南开放的三大国际大通道的格局。跨国运输通道的建设对边疆地区产生广泛的空间影响，在一定条件下将带动整个区域经济的全面协调发展。研究跨国运输走廊演化机理及其与边疆经济的协同效应已成为新时期边疆区域经济发展的迫切需要。本项目首先，在分析我国出境运输交通网络发展演化特征的基础上，构建边境城市跨境交通可达性评估模型，集成空间句法和ArcGIS平台进行测算，研究“一带一路”影响下的跨国运输走廊演化及其对我国边境城市跨境交通可达性空间格局的影响机理；其次，基于场论构建口岸区位势模型并对我国39个陆路边境口岸区位势进行评价，探索基于跨国运输走廊的边境口岸集聚效应产生的潜力和条件；运用行业集中度CRn指数对我国边境城市的国际物流、跨境旅游、出口加工及金融服务等具有沿边特色行业的产业集聚水平进行测度，剖析各沿边产业迁移特征，探索跨国运输走廊时空演化的口岸空间集聚效应和特征；再次，为探索跨国运输走廊的边疆区域经济扩散效应，一方面对口岸城市与内陆腹地城市经济联系强度和口岸城市与周边国家的国家经济联系强度进行测算，并以云南为例，分析边境城市跨境可达性与国际经济联系和外向型经济三系统的耦合协调性；另一方面对边境城市口岸经济发展水平进行评价，并构建边境城市跨境交通可达性的口岸经济拉动效应引力模型，探索边境城市跨境交通可达性对口岸经济发展的影响机理。最后，基于系统动力学理论对“边境口岸-跨国运输走廊-边疆区域经济”复合系统协同效应进行仿真，探究系统良性耦合的内外条件，获取跨国运输走廊影响下的边疆经济协同优化方法，提出依托跨国运输走廊的边疆经济发展对策，并以云南省德宏州为例进行验证。本项目的研究成果可为我国跨国运输走廊规划提供理论依据，并为边疆桥头堡经济发展与管理提供决策支持。