风暴潮灾害脆弱性测度及损失补偿对策研究

With the theoretical guidance of management,economics and marine science, this programme is concentrated on the issue of disaster risk management imposed by storm surge. By employing theories of jump - diffuse and game etc.,this project conducts a study on the vulnerability of the body affected by storm surge and the strategies for loss compensation. On the basis of analyzing the function mechanisms of the storm surge risk , it developes a risk analyzing paradigm GIIE based on the environment which takes into consideration the government, insurance companies and individuals. Under the guidance of this analytical paradigm, it establishes a fragility evaluation index system which covers natural features of storm surge risk and the social features of hazard - effected body. Based on the sample data from the area effected by storm surge, It measures the vulnerability of body affected by storm surge disaster and makes further risk division in method of dynamically clustering by projection pursuit. Second, it developes a signaling game model with government, insurance companies and individuals, and it discusses the issue of loss sharing within the three parties and concludes with the constraint conditions on loss compensation pricing for each party. By combining the issue of capital operation and disaster risk management, it concludes with a loss compensation strategy with the government being dominant and multiple interaction in loss sharing. This research supplies with a theoretical basis and practice means for storm surge risk management, and enables the compensation to be more scientific, effective, and sustaining.

本项目围绕风暴潮灾害风险管理问题，以管理学、经济学和海洋科学相关理论为依据，运用跳扩散理论、博弈论等方法，研究风暴潮灾害脆弱性及损失补偿策略等问题。在分析风暴潮灾害风险作用机理的基础上，构建以环境为依托，以政府、保险公司、个体为承灾主体的风暴潮灾害风险分析范式GIIE。在此分析范式下，首先构建涵盖风暴潮灾害自然风险特征和社会风险特征的脆弱性评价指标体系，选取风暴潮影响区域的样本数据，采用投影寻踪动态聚类方法进行风暴潮灾害脆弱性测度，并进一步确定风暴潮灾害风险区划；其次，构建政府、保险公司、个体的信号博弈模型，讨论三者之间的损失分担问题，从而得出其损失补偿策略价格的约束条件；最后，将资本运作与灾害风险管理相结合，设计出政府主导下多元互动、损失分担的风暴潮灾害损失补偿策略。本项目的研究成果为风暴潮灾害风险管理提供了理论依据和实践手段，使灾害损失补偿行为更具科学性、有效性和持续性。

本项目以风暴潮灾害风险管理问题为核心，基于经济学、管理学、海洋科学等相关理论，运用数据包络理论、资产定价理论、博弈论等方法，研究风暴潮灾害风险分析范式、脆弱性及损失补偿策略等问题。.以典型海洋灾害风暴潮为研究对象，运用超效率DEA模型，评估了我国沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性。构建衡量政府灾害防御能力的协调度指标，利用Fourier变换检验了政府补贴灾害的协调度，发现其存在突变特征并依据非线性平稳性检验对补贴协调度进行动态拟合。结合粗糙集理论（RST）与组合赋权策略（CWM），建立了基于RST-CWM的风暴潮灾害脆弱性组合评价模型，综合评价了沿海各省市地区海洋风暴潮灾害脆弱性。.从致灾因子、承载体和孕灾环境三方面考虑构建风暴潮灾害损失评估指标体系，基于RS-SVM 模型测算了风暴潮灾害损失。采用Fourier级数扩展模型构建损失时间序列预测模型，研究了我国风暴潮灾害损失的周期波动性和收敛性。采用遗传与粒子群混合算法对投影寻踪动态聚类（PPDC）模型进行优化，组合运用粗糙集理论（RST）与修正的PPDC模型，对我国沿海地区风暴潮灾害的风险进行综合评估与区域等级划分，为国家实施差异化的灾害风险管理战略提供了思路与参考。.借鉴自然灾害风险转移机制的经验，构建GIIE分析范式，从个体、政府及保险公司三个方面描述了风暴潮灾害风险的转移机制，认为其转移需要三者相互作用。在总结归纳巨灾风险管理理论、暴潮巨灾债券发行现实背景的基础上，针对风暴潮巨灾债券运作模式与风险分担机制进行了分析，对风暴潮巨灾债券融资规模、固定利率条件下单事件触发风暴潮巨灾债券定价、随机利率条件下单事件触发风暴潮巨灾债券定价、随机利率条件下多事件触发风暴潮巨灾债券定价进行了量化研究。在此基础上，提出了我国风暴潮巨灾债券实践应用的对策建议。.本项目的研究成果为风暴潮灾害风险管理提供了理论依据和实践手段，使灾害损失补偿行为更具科学性、有效性和持续性。