重要基础设施脆弱性评估方法、模型及系统

In recent years, with the increase of disaster events, the vulnerabilities of the critical infrastructures system are increasingly aggravated. We have carried out some research about vulnerability assessment and other related aspects of the system. How to aggregate and integrate research results into the application platform are the important issues, which urgently needed to resolve. The main contents for the project include: proposing comprehensive vulnerability assessment system for the regional critical infrastructure, improving the infrastructure vulnerability assessment framework based on ANP-DEA, improving the vulnerability assessment methods based on cascading effect, finally, the project will construct an urban critical infrastructures system with case study and simulation. This project will offer a theoretical and practical guide to effective emergencies response, which aims at providing the database, model base, and knowledge base which required by vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure on the comprehensive emergency management integration platform.

近年来，随着灾害事件的增加，重要基础设施系统在抵御风险上的脆弱性日益凸显。前期我们已经对其进行了系统脆弱性分析、评价等相关方面的研究。如何更好地凝聚脆弱性评估方面的相关研究成果，将其集成到应用平台，是目前急需解决的重要问题。本项研究的主要内容包括：提出适用于区域性重要基础设施的脆弱性综合评估体系；完善ANP-DEA相结合的基础设施脆弱性评价框架的构建；完善基于级联效应的系统脆弱性评估方法研究；通过案例模拟等技术手段完成城市重要基础设施的脆弱性评估集成平台的构建，旨在为综合应急管理集成平台提供重要基础设施脆弱性评估所需的数据库、模型库、知识库并最终为有效应对灾害事件提供理论指导和实战指南。

该项目为期1年，课题组在对前期工作总结凝练的基础上，重点针对基础设施系统脆弱性、弹性分析、评估、评价方法等相关研究成果机型集成升华，将其集成到国家应急应用平台上。本项研究的主要完成的内容包括：建立了适用于上海区域性重要基础设施的脆弱性综合评估体系；完善基础设施脆弱性评价框架的构建；完善基于级联效应的系统脆弱性评估方法研究；通过上海市陈行水库案例模拟，构建了基于GIS系统的上海市水系统脆弱性和弹性评价评估方法。完成了城市重要基础设施的脆弱性评估集成平台的构建，为综合应急管理集成平台提供重要基础设施脆弱性评估所需的数据库、模型库、知识库并最终为有效应对灾害事件提供理论指导和实战指南。