信任与农民创业：机会识别、创业决策与创业绩效

Farmers’ entrepreneurship is not only an inevitable choice for accumulation new energy for agricultural and rural economic development, but also an effective way to increase farmers' income and employment opportunities. Moreover, it is an important force to boost public entrepreneurship and citizen’s innovation. As a key social capital, trust is of great significance impact on farmers’ entrepreneurship. Therefore, based on the perspective of trust, this project aims to build a theoretical framework of the effect of trust on farmers' entrepreneurship and a measuring index system of trust. Meanwhile, in order to investigate the process of farmers' entrepreneurship, we will use micro-survey data covering 900 entrepreneurial farmers from three provinces. To analyze how and to what extent the effect of trust on farmers' opportunities identification in entrepreneurship, Structure Equation Model (SEM) will be applied. To analyze the effect of trust on farmers' business startup decision-making Discrete Choice Model (DCM) will be used. In addition, the Factor Analysis Method (FAM) will be applied to measure farmers’ new venture performance synthetically, and the Multi-Linear Model (MLM) will be adapted to analyze the impact of trust on farmers' venture performance. Finally, according to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this project will put forward some policy suggestions to promot the farmers' ability of opportunities identification and decision-making, also improve their entrepreneurial performance, and then provide realistic basis and decision-making reference for relevant government departments in formulating and perfecting service policies for farmers' entrepreneurship.

农民创业是蓄积农业农村经济发展新动能的必然选择，是带动农民就业增收的有效途径，是助推大众创业万众创新的重要力量。信任作为一种关键的社会资本，对农民创业具有重要的影响。为此，本项目基于信任视角，从人际信任和制度信任两个方面，构建信任对农民创业影响机理的理论分析框架和信任测度的指标体系，结合3省900名农民创业者的微观调研数据，针对农民创业过程，运用结构方程模型分析信任对农民创业机会识别的影响方向与程度；利用离散选择模型分析信任对农民创业决策的影响；利用因子分析法对农民绩效进行综合测度，采用多元线性模型分析信任对农民创业绩效影响。最后，依据理论分析和实证分析的结果，提出提升农民创业机会识别和创业决策能力、提高农民创业绩效的政策建议，为政府部门制定和完善农民创业的公共服务政策提供现实依据和决策参考。

向更高层次、更大范围和更深程度推进农民创新创业为农业产业转型升级、共同富裕奠定坚实基础。信任，作为一项非正式制度，不仅能降低不确定性、抵御风险，还可以促成合作、提高协作效率，为新时期新阶段提升农民创业发生率和提高创业成功率提供新思路。本文基于创业过程理论、机会识别理论等多维理论，构建创业过程视角下信任对农民创业影响的理论逻辑框架，详细阐述信任对农民创业机会识别、农民创业选择决策与农民创业绩效的影响机理。本文采用课题组在浙江、安徽、河南、陕西等地搜集的890份农民创业者专项调查数据与中国家庭追踪调查2012~2018年全国农村地区的微观数据，运用微观计量经济学模型与方法，实证检验信任对农民创业的影响及机理。研究结果表明：（1）全国农民创业发生率约为8%，且存在显著的区域异质性，长江三角区和珠江三角区部分省份高于其他省份。从实地调研数据看，种植业为农民创业者的首选行业，其次是养殖业和生产性服务业。（2）信任对农民创业机会识别具有显著正向影响，即信任水平较高的农民在创业机会识别方面更具优势。外部知识获取和创业警觉性在信任与农民创业机会识别之间均发挥部分中介作用。（3）信任显著提高了农民创业选择的概率，即持“大多数人可以信任”态度的农民进入创业的概率比持“与人相处要越小心越好”态度的农民高出1个百分点，约为全国平均农民创业发生率的八分之一。（4）信任对农民创业绩效具有显著的正向影响，即农民创业者信任水平越高，创业绩效越好；创业学习在信任与创业绩效之间起部分中介作用；创业环境在“信任-创业学习-创业绩效”影响路径中发挥调节效应。基于以上研究结果，提出应加强诚信文化建设，全面提升乡村地区信任水平；营造公平市场秩序，降低创业的不确定性和风险；拓宽资源获取渠道，破解农民创新创业资源约束；着力创业环境升级，激活乡村地区创新创业潜能等政策启示。