农地规模经营研究：驱动机理、绩效评价、政策设计

With steady economic growth and the acceleration of agricultural modernization in China, the development of large-scale farming will be increasingly rapid. This study makes an in-depth analysis of large-scale farming regarding the driving mechanisms, performance assessment and policy design. First of all, on the basis of the international experience, including all the stakeholders involved in large-scale farming, this study analyses the status quo and explores the driving mechanisms of large-scale farming in China at national, provincial, village, large-scale farmer as well as traditional farm household level applying spatial econometric model and econometric model. Secondly, this study incorporates large-scale farmers and traditional farm households into a unified analytical framework, and assesses economic, social and environmental impacts of large-scale farming using econometric model and bio-economic farm model. In particular, this study aims at answering the following questions: Large-scale farming is more efficient? Large-scale farming is a threat to food security? Does large-scale farming damage the rights and interests of traditional farm households? Can large-scale farming alleviate environmental problems? Finally, from aspects of rural land institution, agricultural management system, professional farmers and government policy guidance, this study puts forward universal and differential policy design regarding large-scale farming that matches the current stage of rural economic development in China.

随着中国经济持续稳定增长和农业现代化加快推进，农地规模经营发展必将越来越迅速。本研究对农地规模经营的驱动机理、绩效评价和政策设计进行了深度剖析。首先，在总结国际经验基础上，将农地规模经营涉及的所有利益相关者纳入研究，从全国及省级层面、村级层面、规模经营主体层面和农户层面全面把握我国农地规模经营的现状，基于空间计量模型和经济计量模型揭示农地规模经营的驱动机理。其次，将规模经营主体和普通农户纳入统一的分析框架，基于经济计量模型和农场生物—经济模型综合评价农地规模经营的经济、社会和环境绩效，尤其关注规模经营是否更有效率？规模经营是否威胁粮食安全？规模经营是否损害了农民权益？规模经营是否真正可以缓解环境问题？等等。最后，从农村土地制度、农业经营制度、新型职业农民、政府政策引导等四个方面进行制度和政策创新，提出与我国当前农村经济发展阶段特征相匹配的农地规模经营普适性和差别化政策设计。

如何促进农地规模经营、提高农业绩效是政界和学界高度关注的前沿热点。现有相关文献多聚焦于单一层面或视角的研究，缺乏宏、中、微观相结合的驱动机理剖析，以及囊括经济、社会、环境与可持续发展绩效的系统评价。鉴于此，本研究对农地规模经营的驱动机理、绩效评价和制度创新进行了深度剖析。首先，从中观县级层面和微观农户层面，利用空间计量模型和经济计量模型揭示农地规模经营的驱动机理。其次，将规模经营主体和普通农户纳入统一的分析框架，基于经济计量模型、空间计量模型及结构方程模型系统评价农地规模经营的经济、社会、环境和可持续发展绩效。最后，提出推进农地流转（规模经营）的制度创新。结果表明：①提高土地产权安全有利于农地规模经营的发展，如拥有二轮承包证书能促进农户转出农地，取得新一轮确权证书则能激励农户转入更多农地。②经济绩效上，与小规模农户（1~20亩）相比，经营规模为当地户均承包地面积10~15倍的经营主体能够获得更高的农业生产率；农户转入农地扩大经营规模会使土地利用效率提升3.9%。③社会绩效上，农地转入扩大经营规模增加了农户收入，而受到政府干预的农地转出降低了农户收入；与流转给小规模农户相比，将农地流转给规模经营主体未能显著提高转出户的收入；土地股份合作社的治理机制对社员收入和满意度有重要影响，如参与合作社的决策管理能提高社员从合作社获得的收益。④环境绩效上，规模经营主体的平均化肥使用效率为27.3%，减少现有化肥用量可以保持产量不降低；具有积极的行为态度和主观规范的规模经营主体采纳测土配方施肥技术的意向明显更高，进而有利于化肥减量和环境改善。⑤可持续发展绩效上，签订书面合同能够增强产权安全性，提高规模经营主体的投资回报预期，促进其土壤改善性投资行为（如施用有机肥），进而有利于农业生产可持续发展。⑥进一步推进农地流转（规模经营），需要在明晰和稳定农地产权的基础上，从法律层面强化农地经营权。