食品供应链质量安全风险演变机理与调控优化模型

In recent years，the frequent problems in food quality safety incidents have become a very serious situation for our country.In view of this severe challenge，the study thoroughly shows the developing mechanism for the risk of quality safety in the food supply chain，systematically identifying the major risk element and its precipitating factor.It is also buliding the structural model，proposing the risk origin rules.The study's research on the dynamic mechanism of the fluctuation of one risk and the coupling effect among various kinds of risk in the course of risk conduction of food quality safety,building the risk conduction model for the quality safety risk of food supply chain，proposing the risk conduction mechanism.According to the characteristic of food quality safety risk，the study puts forward the hierarchy theory for the threshold of food quality safety risk and gives its mathematical relational expression，studing on the stability mechanism of food quality safety system under the risk perturbation，building the catastrophe mathematical model for the risk of food quality safety，revealing the system of the outbreak of risk. Based on the mechanism and course of the developing of food quality safety risk，the paper designs an optimum portfolio model of risk control for the quality safety of food supply chain in different ways，bringing forward the mechanism of the overall optimization for the food quality safety risk control.The paper is an important supplement and perfection for the methodology of food quality safety risk management，and it also enriches and develops the methodology of the supply chain risk management，which aims at providing scientific theoretical foundation and effective solutions for the practice of food quality safety management of our country.

针对近年来我国食品质量安全事件频发的严峻现实，本课题将深刻揭示食品供应链质量安全风险的演变规律，包括系统识别食品供应链质量安全关键风险因子及其诱发因素并构建其结构关系模型，给出风险生成机理；探究食品质量安全风险传导中单风险涨落和多风险耦合的动力学机制，建立食品供应链质量安全风险的动态传导模型，提出风险传导机理；根据食品质量安全风险特征，提出食品质量安全风险阈值的层次论及其数学关系式，研究风险扰动下食品质量安全系统的稳定机制，构建食品质量安全风险突变模型，从而揭示风险爆发机理。依据食品质量安全风险的演变机理和过程，从多个视角设计食品供应链质量安全风险调控优化组合模型，进而提出食品质量安全风险整体优化治理机制。课题的研究成果不仅是对食品质量安全管理理论体系的重要补充和拓展，还是对供应链风险管理理论的丰富与完善，旨在为我国食品质量安全管理实践提供科学的理论依据和有效的解决方案。

本项目研究主要利用解释结构模型化技术、博弈论以及实证分析等方法，在明确界定了供应链环境下食品质量安全风险的概念、内涵及特征的基础上，深刻揭示了食品供应链质量安全风险的演变规律，包括系统识别出了供应链环境下的食品质量安全关键风险因素及其重要诱发因子，构建了食品质量安全风险因素的结构关系模型，深入解析了食品质量安全风险的生成机理；提出了供应链环境下食品质量安全风险传导系统的概念模型，建立了食品供应链质量安全风险传导核心动因的五级递阶结构模型，深刻揭示了食品供应链质量安全风险的传导机理；初步提出了供应链环境下食品质量安全风险阈值的基本理论，给出了食品供应链质量安全风险因子传导阈值的函数关系式。根据供应链环境下食品质量安全风险的演变机理，从多个视角设计出了食品供应链质量安全风险调控优化组合模型，开展了供应链视角下食品质量安全风险调控投资研究，建立了食品供应链上主要节点质量安全风险调控投资模型，进而提出了供应链环境下的食品质量安全风险整体优化治理机制。. 项目的研究成果不仅是对食品质量安全管理理论体系的重要补充和拓展，还是对供应链风险管理理论的丰富与完善，更是为实践中有效防控供应链环境下的食品质量安全风险和提高全社会食品质量安全性提供了较科学的理论依据和具体有效的解决方案，并为今后进一步深入开展有关食品质量安全风险调控问题的研究奠定了坚实的理论与实践基础。