农业供应链金融实证研究：机理、影响与政策选择

To develop the agricultural supply chain finance, will help China upgrade agriculture, and break the capital bottleneck and make up for shortcomings of the rural financial market. However, China is less research on agricultural supply chain finance, which focusing on qualitative and case-based studies, lacks of the systematically empirical research. Based on this, the present study was to use the agency model, Biprobit models, micro data by means of field surveys and typical agricultural supply chain finance case, to analyze and summarize the agricultural supply chain finance operation mechanism and its characteristics, in particular the agricultural supply chain finance feasibility, prerequisites for effective operation, and to empirical assessment of the agricultural supply chain finance in easing the difficulties of agriculture finance (especially small-scale farmers) and of the effect and its mechanism in the promotion to a more senior agricultural supply chain .Ultimately we will discuss the development model, development direction and government policy choice of agricultural supply chain finance from the aspects of profitability, transaction costs, risk control, collateral and the role of government, etc. and provide theoretical guidance and policy reference for the development of the agricultural supply chain finance. This study will contribute to a comprehensive assessment of the performance of China's rural financial development, with a strong academic and practical significance.

探索发展农业供应链金融，将有利于中国农业转型升级，对破解农业经营主体资金瓶颈、补齐农村金融市场短板具有重要的促进作用。然而，目前我国对农业供应链金融的研究较少，多以定性和案例分析为主，缺乏系统性的实证研究。基于此，本研究拟采用委托代理模型、Biprobit模型等方法，借助实地调查的微观数据和典型的农业供应链融资案例，分析归纳农业供应链金融的运行机理及其特点，尤其是农业供应链金融的可行性、有效运行的先决条件及其影响因素，实证评估农业供应链金融在缓解农业融资难（尤其是小规模农户）和促进农业供应链升级等方面的影响及其作用机制。最终从盈利性、交易成本、风险控制、抵押担保与政府作用等方面探讨农业供应链金融的发展模式、发展方向以及政府的政策选择，为发展农业供应链金融和促进农业现代化提供理论指导和政策参考。本研究将有利于全面评估中国农村金融发展的绩效，具有较强的学术价值和现实意义。

目前，中国农村金融市场供需失衡，农业供应链的参与者无论是传统农户还是新型农业经营主体面临较强的资金约束，对现代农业供应链转型升级产生了严重的负面影响。探索发展农业供应链金融，着力破解农业经营主体资金瓶颈，有助于补齐农村金融市场短板、加快农业供应链转型升级。本课题基于我国农业现代化和纵向一体化的背景和趋势，通过农村固定观察点调查和农业信贷担保公司获得的围观数据，主要研究了以下问题：（1）通过农业供应链融资案例，分析归纳农业供应链金融的运行机理及其特点，尤其是农业供应链金融的可行性、有效运行的先决条件及其影响因素，进而实证评估农业供应链金融在缓解农业融资难（尤其是小规模农户）和促进农业供应链升级等方面的影响及其作用机制。（2）总结目前我国农业供应链金融的主要模式，以及其运行的内在机制和作用，结合数字金融（基于5G和区块链等技术）预判农业供应链金融发展的最新趋势等。（3）最终从盈利性、交易成本、风险控制、抵押担保与政府政策支持等方面探讨农业供应链金融的发展模式、发展方向以及政府的政策选择，为发展农业供应链金融和促进农业现代化提供理论指导和政策参考。（4）研究了可用于加强农业供应链稳定性的融资产品和风控模式，如基于农业供应链的农业信贷担保产品，以及应用于农业供应链金融的信用风险评级模型等。本课题取得的研究成果，有助于更加科学地审视中国农业供应链金融发展的基础和环境，科学评估其价值和作用，有利于全面评估中国农村金融发展的绩效，具有较好的学术价值和理论意义。更为重要的是，本课题的研究进展也是探索优化我国农业资源要素配置、制定农业农村金融政策的基础和前提。