高质量发展视角下社会保险费率调整与就业促进的互动机制研究

The benign interaction between social insurance and employment is an inevitable requirement for the high-quality development of economy. However, the practice in recent years shows that there are many problems both within the social insurance system and in the coordination of social insurance and employment.Based on the internal relationship between social insurance and employment, this project examines the impact of social insurance premium rate, corporate and employee rate sharing structure on employment level and employment quality, and the feedback effect of employment on the operation of social insurance system.Then, on the basis of the different preferences and behavioral decisions of enterprises and labourers towards social insurance, this paper discusses the micro-mechanism of the interactive relationship between social insurance and employment. On the basis of the above research, this project takes the adjustment of the social insurance rate as a breakthrough and takes the benign interaction between social insurance and employment as the basic goal to seek the optimal adjustment path of the social insurance rate level and rate structure. Through the above research, this project integrates the social insurance's demand for rate reduction and the employment target of fuller and higher quality,and provides a new perspective for the reform of social insurance parameters, which ensures the coordinated development of social and economic policies. This research not only has practical significance for guiding the practice of China's social insurance system, but also has important value for enriching the theory of social insurance system.

社会保险与就业的良性互动是经济高质量发展的必然要求，然而，近年来的实践表明，无论是在社会保险制度内部还是在社会保险与就业的协调性方面，都存在诸多问题。本项目立足于社会保险与就业的内在联系，考察社会保险费率水平、企业和职工的费率分担结构对就业水平、就业质量的影响效应以及就业对社会保险制度运行的反馈作用；以企业、劳动者对待社会保险的不同偏好和行为决策为依据，探讨社会保险与就业互动关系的微观机制；在此基础上，以费率调整为突破口，以社会保险和就业的良性互动为基本目标，寻求社会保险费率水平及费率分担结构的优化路径。通过以上研究内容，本项目融合了社会保险的降费诉求和更充分、更高质量的就业目标，从社会政策与经济政策的协调发展角度，为社会保险参数改革提供了新视角。该研究不仅对指导我国社会保险制度实践具有现实意义，对丰富社会保险制度理论也有重要价值。

社会保险与就业的良性互动是助推经济高质量发展的必然要求，但二者的实际互动效果取决于社会保险缴费率等参数设计的合理性及其与就业局势的协调性。近年来，我国出现了社会保险缴费率偏高、基金失衡，以及就业人口无法有效转换为参保缴费人口等无序状态。解决这些问题需要厘清社会保险费率变动影响就业的效应与机制，以及就业反馈于社会保险制度运行的路径。本课题以此为背景，以社会保险费率设计为切入点，探讨社会保险缴费、降费对就业的多维影响效应；以基金运行为落脚点，考察就业对社会保险制度运行的反馈作用，从而为新时期就业与社会保险的高质量发展提供决策咨询和政策建议。在系统研究后，本课题发现以下几点主要结论：第一，社会保险缴费对就业的影响具有多维性，在就业总量、就业结构和就业质量等维度均产生了显著的负面效应，对企业产生了“减员效应”、“资本替代效应”、“降薪效应”，对劳动者产生了“就业挤出和非正规化效应”、“就业质量弱化效应”。第二，社会保险降费改革起到了“稳就业”的作用，且对就业结构、就业质量也有一定的正面影响，具有一定的“就业促进和引导效应”，但其影响效果存在较大的群体差异。第三，就业对社会保险制度运行产生了反馈作用，就业的“去雇主化”弱化了社会保险基金平衡能力，提高就业质量有助于加强社会保险基金的健康运行。