泥河湾盆地衰落农村发展模式与演化规律研究

In recent years, Demographic behavior research has attracted much attention. The study has made significant progress in population distribution, population control, urban integration, rural construction, household behavior, household livelihood and other fields. Because of lacking the micro investigation of community, there is few cross-scale experience, understanding and perception of life logic hiding in demographic behavior for geographers. The theory innovation on demographic geography is restricted. In this project, Shrinking Village natural endowment types are divided by the multi-dimensional geographic features and community demographics are described by the full population database - A case study of Nihewan basin. The community and household typical practice modes and the practicing mainstay modes are identified by means of questionnaire and field surveys, which is useful for understanding the development of communities and households. The key impact factors of various community and household development mode are retrieved by comparing these cases. The evolution law of development of community and household is summarized by place as a substitute for time; Based on function orientation of regional development, and endogenous advantage, the regional leading mode of shrinking village is explored. The demographic behavior is studied by micro survey method, and the shrinking village development is studied from the perspective of cross scale, which will improve the comprehensive research ability of the demographics geographers, and will enrich the theory of sustainable population development in the shrinking village.

近年来，人口行为研究备受关注，人口分布、人口调控、城市融入、农村建设、农户行为、农户生计等领域均取得显著进展。由于缺乏社区微型调查，人口地理学家对社区和家庭尺度的人口行为背后的生活逻辑尚缺乏跨尺度的体验、理解和感悟，制约了人口地理学的理论创新。项目以泥河湾盆地衰落农村为例，以社区（村）为单位，结合多维地理要素，划分社区禀赋类型，结合全员人口数据库，描述社区人口特征，开展农村社区禀赋类型和人口特征关系研究；通过走访调查和问卷调查，掌握社区和农户发展状况，凝练社区和农户典型实践模式、操作主体模式；结合案例，寻找社区和农户发展模式的关键影响因子；以空间换时间，总结农村社区和农户发展演化规律；基于区域功能定位和内生优势，探寻区域发展主导模式。用社区微型调查法研究人口行为，用跨尺度的视角审视衰落农村发展问题，将提高人口地理学家跨尺度的综合研究能力，将丰富和完善衰落农村可持续的人口发展理论。

泥河湾盆地位于农牧交错带，是京津生态屏障区。项目组以村为单位，依据综合禀赋特征，将盆地划分为裸岩洪积区、碱滩分布区、厚层黄土分布区和薄层黄土分布区；通过分层抽样，开展田野调查，有效走访了168个农户、39家企业和34个村委会，凝练了不同行为主体的典型实践模式。研究表明：⑴研究区农村产业结构单一，土地生产效率几无提升空间。⑵农户主要借助考学升学、外出务工、非农就业、落户城镇等手段，改善自身处境，以户为单位的农业生产组织发展乏力。⑶行动者网络成为孕育新型农业生产主体和推动其发展的必要条件。目前已形成以政府为核心的精准扶贫行动者网络（提供公共服务和兜底保障）、以农村基层组织为核心的行动者网络（扶持种植和养殖大户）和以特色企业为核心的行动者网络（探索农业产业化或生态抚育）。17.6%的受访村拥有3种网络，发展较好；23.5%的村拥有2种网络；52.9%的村拥有1种网络；6.0%的村没有网络。⑷养殖企业通过依附于龙头企业的纵向一体化产业链，营造特色生产关系网络，取得较好经济效益；林业企业建设周期长、前期投资大，虽有显著生态效益，但经济效益不明显。政府要通过生态补偿或赎买，维护林业企业经营者权益，保护来之不易的生态建设成果。⑸部分村委会结合国土空间规划，有序开发复垦，获取补偿经费，按照“职住分离”原则，调整庄内用地结构，有序安排居住、复垦和养殖空间，打造了“种植+养殖+加工”的循环农业，将居住和养殖空间相互隔离，改善了农村人居环境。项目组认为，应鼓励农村人口跨县流出，并逐步将衰落村庄由生活和生产基地转变为生态抚育和农业产业化基地。