基于消费者“羊群行为”的运作及营销策略研究

Herd behavior stands for a phenomenon that decision-makers ignore their own private information and conciously imitate others' actions or decisions.Consumer herd behaviors often significantly influence the managers' operational and marketing strategies in real life, especially for prodcuts whose quality information is hard to know by consumers or for new products.For example, when choosing a restaurant to have dinner, people often choose the one with more customers. Nevertheless, in the field of operations management, the study of herd behavior is very limited, and the managers often lack some theoretical guidance to formulate the operational and marketing strategies. Using queuing, game, probability and optimization theories, this project mainly focuses on some certain industries and market characteristics and aims at constructing mathematical models of consumer herd behaviors, investigating the influences of consumer herd behaviors over the enterprises' operational, marketing strategies, profit and market shares, and quantifying the loss of ignoring consumer herd behaviors. Furthermore,in this project we also study the interactive influences of consumer herd behaviors and market competition over the enterprises' operational, marketing strategies, profit and market shares. We will systematically study consumer herd behaviors' influence over enterprises, enrich the herd behavior literature and provide strong decision support for enterprises.

羊群行为，又叫跟风行为，指的是决策者忽视自己的私有信息而有意识地模仿他人决策的行为。现实生活中，消费者的羊群行为对企业的运作、营销策略有显著的影响，尤其在商品质量信息不易被消费者所知的"服务型"商品和新商品行业。例如：消费者常选择就餐人数较多的餐厅用餐。然而在运作管理领域，考虑羊群行为的研究还为数不多，使得企业在制定运作和营销策略时，缺乏高屋建瓴的抽象直观的理论指导。本项目拟针对不同行业和市场的特点，综合运用排队论、博弈论、概率论和优化理论等多种理论方法，建立消费者羊群行为的数学模型，研究消费者羊群行为对企业的运作、营销策略和企业的利润、市场份额的影响，量化企业忽略消费者羊群行为导致的损失。在此基础上，本项目将进一步研究市场竞争和消费者羊群行为对企业的交互影响，初步对基于消费者羊群行为的企业运作、营销策略做全面系统的研究，理论上丰富羊群行为领域的研究，实际上为企业提供有力的决策支持。

本项目基于消费者“羊群行为”的运作管理研究重点考虑了从企业的角度出发，如果应对消费者的羊群行为，实现企业利益最大化，或者如何基于羊群行为引导消费者，实现企业利润的最大化。本项目得到了关于消费者行为模式的区分方式，并且基于该区分方式如何进行羊群行为的刻画，以及企业如何根据该刻画来进行销售模式调整的引导。