全球气候变化背景下污染密集型产业国际转移的利益均衡:模型构建与实证研究

International negotiations on climate problems have risen to national competition for environmental capacity and development space, the essence of which is the dispute of economic benefits..This project regards pollution-intensive industries, which have become areas of priorities and concern in carbon emissions reduction and transfer, as the object of study.Then the pros and cons in international transfer of the very industries is analized along two main lines of trade and investment from a comparative perspective of national interests.We build a theoretical framework with integration of Environmental Kuznets Curve and industry life cycle theory,by which we explore the analytical methods and frame system for the balance of interests of transfer in pollution-intensive industries.Further more, we estimate the costs and benefits of industrial transfer in pollution-intensive industries while exploring its regularity and establish a game model for interrelated stakeholders to seek the mechanism design and institutional arrangements for coordination of national interests and the global public interest..Combined with scenario and game analysis, this subject establishes the theoretical study on the basis of objective analysis and quantitative description of the practical problems.Multi-disciplinary theories of economics, environmentology as well as sociology are applied synthetically and the costs and benefits of industrial international shift are measured scientifically.We try to make out the actual interests distribution and relative reasonable mechanism within future interests framework and provide ideas or solutions for relevant decision-making.

气候问题的国际谈判已上升为各国对环境容量、发展空间的争夺，其实质为经济利益之争。污染密集型产业成为碳减排与碳排放转移的重点和焦点领域，本项目以此为研究对象，融和环境库兹涅茨曲线与产业生命周期理论构建理论框架，从国家利益比较的视角，沿着贸易和投资两条主线展开产业转移利益分析，探索性地建立产业国际转移均衡分析方法和框架体系。在此基础上，对产业转移中的成本-收益进行测度，探索其变化规律的同时建立各利益主体的博弈模型，寻求国家利益与全球公共利益协调的机制设计和制度安排。.本课题将理论研究建立于对实际问题客观分析和定量描述的基础上，结合情景和博弈分析，综合应用经济、环境、社会等多学科的理论，科学地测度产业转移的成本收益，研究产业转移中真实利益分布和未来利益框架内合理的利益分配机制，为相关决策提供思路和解决方案。

本项目以碳排放转移理论为基础，针对全球气候变化为背景下污染密集型产业国际转移中碳减排、环境规制、利益均衡问题已成为研究的重点和焦点领域，本项目以此为研究对象，从国家利益比较的视角，沿着贸易和投资两条主线展开污染密集型产业国际转移的碳减排、环境规制、利益均衡问题研究。从构建基于产业转移-碳排放-环境规制-利益均衡的建模分析，污染密集型产业识别及其转移中的碳排放测度方法，污染密集型产业国际转移中的困境——利益的非均衡，污染密集型产业国际转移中产业承接国利益生成与成本的测度，污染密集型产业国际转移中利益博弈等方面展开相关研究。项目研究表明，（1）通过一系列相关的污染密集型产业排放转移测度模型，研究了国际贸易和国际投资路径下不同国家CO2 转移排放量及其影响机制，解析分析与数值模拟详细地探讨转移排放、碳泄漏对社会经济的影响，模拟国际贸易和投资中的 CO2 转移排放量，有助于从“消费排放”的视角更公平地量定各国的历史排放责任；（2）在考虑各国环境规制因素下，通过模拟各国各部门间转移排放，有助于明确转移排放的具体脉络，提出针对性强的部门层面减排策略；（3）在排放转移模型基础上进一步研究了产业转移中的成本-收益，探索其变化规律的同时建立各利益主体的博弈模型，寻求国家利益与全球公共利益协调的机制设计和制度安排。科学地测度产业转移的成本收益，研究产业转移中真实利益分布和未来利益框架内合理的利益分配机制，为相关决策提供思路和解决方案。（4）通过预估未来各国和国家集团间转移排放，有助于指导未来国际间的减排合作。此外，针对不同因素作用下的排放转移的演化、能耗及排放的分析、运行成本等问题展开深入的研究。