"污染排放-环境质量"同步耦合情景下行业企业初始排污权差异化配置模式与优化算法研究——基于Nash谈判模型

Optimization of industrial structure and technological progress are the main paths of achieving coordinated synchronization of the amount of the total pollutant control and the quality of the environmental quality improvement. Based on the relationship between pollution emissions and environmental quality input response to environmental quality improvement, this project define the connotation of coupling relationship of the total Amount Control of Pollutants and Environmental Quality Improvement. Study on the coupling mechanism and formation mechanism of the total Amount Control of Pollutants and Environmental Quality Improvement. Do the mathematical Derivation Technology of the total amount of regional optimal pollution control based on environmental quality, to achieve the total amount of pollution control and environmental quality improvement of the quantitative response. From the perspective of industrial structure evolution we choose the typical city, the typical industry for the study and construct the Industrial - Environmental Bidirectional Coupling Optimization Model to do the coupling optimization of industrial structure and environmental quality so as to determine the difference between the initial emission rights and the optimization of the industry. From a fair and equitable perspective, the project propose a two-level differentiated configuration model of Initial emission rights of enterprises which is formed by the administrative compulsory allocation and the government-enterprise agreement acquisition. Introduce the Game Decision - making Mechanism of Government - Enterprise Risk – sharing and use the Nash negotiation model to get the technical Method for Solving the Optimal Quota for Government - Enterprise Agreement. The research results can provide technical support for the synchronous coupling and coordinated development of the total amount of pollution control and environmental quality improvement.

产业结构优化升级和技术进步是实现污染物总量控制的“量”与环境质量改善的“质”协调同步的主要路径。本项目基于污染排放与环境质量的输入响应关系，界定污染物总量控制与环境质量改善的耦合关系内涵，研究污染物总量控制与环境质量改善的同步耦合机理与形成机制，数理推导基于环境质量的区域最优污染控制总量核算技术方法，实现污染总量控制与环境质量改善的定量呼应；从产业结构演变视角，选择典型城市、典型行业为研究对象，构建产业-环境双向耦合优化模型，进行产业结构与环境质量双向耦合优化模拟，确定行业初始排污权差异化配置和优化算法；从公平公正视角，提出企业初始排污权“行政强制配置+政企协议购置”的“双层次”差异化配置模式，引入政企风险分担的博弈决策谈判机制，运用Nash谈判模型，求解政企协议购置最优配额的技术方法，为我国污染物总量控制与环境质量改善同步耦合协调发展提供技术支撑。

产业结构优化升级和技术进步是实现污染物总量控制的“量”与环境质量改善的“质”协调同步的主要路径。本项目界定污染物总量控制与环境质量改善的耦合关系内涵，研究污染物总量控制与环境质量改善的同步耦合机理与形成机制；构建产业-环境双向耦合优化模型，进行产业结构与环境质量双向耦合优化模拟，确定行业初始排污权差异化配置和优化算法；提出企业初始排污权“行政强制配置+政企协议购置”的“双层次”差异化配置模式，为我国污染物总量控制与环境质量改善同步耦合协调发展提供技术支撑。结果显示，“十三五”时期,除海南和西藏外,其他地区的污染物总量控制指标均能在一定程度上反映环境质量改善,“量—质”响应关系较好。而且在我国大部分地区,生态环境损失成本、单位GDP的SO2排放量、污染物减排价值等是影响“量—质”响应关系的关键因素。不同地区“量—质”响应关系的不同阶段所对应的减排率的起始范围存在较大差别,如广东与山西在良好响应阶段的SO2减排率的起始范围相差45.85%,这与不同地区SO2排放量、年均SO2浓度、SO2占总污染排放量比重、单位GDP的SO2排放量、SO2污染引起的生态环境损失占当年GDP的比重以及SO2减排价值密切相关。产业结构与环境质量双向耦合优化模拟结果显示，所有行业中,只有非金属矿物制品业和农副食品加工制造业在目标年会获得比基准年更多的排污权配额,因此这两个行业的经济发展是被鼓励的;电力、热力、燃气生产和供应业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业和化学原料及化学制品制造业在目标年获得的排污权配额相比于基准年的配额大量削减,意味着这些行业在规划期内将被严格限制发展。构建政府与企业风险分担机制，并以全国31个省份为对象进行模拟，风险分担能力强的一方承担更多的风险，在政府和企业减少风险损失能力都“强”或者都“弱”的情况下，政府承担的风险比例略高于企业，说明政府的综合实力总体来讲还是高于企业的,另外也更能激励企业在排污权交易中的积极参与。