差异性公平视角下省域初始排污权分配模式与优化算法研究——基于不对称Nash谈判模型

The equitable allocation of primary emission rights should answer two crucial questions: what kind of equity should be realized and how. Based on the sustainable development theory, this project defines the connotation of differential equity of primary emission rights, develops the differential equity system and fundamental principles for quota allocation. Based the existing governmental administrative allocation, it introduces the regional horizontal equity contrast negotiation mechanism and studies on determining primary emission rights’ equitable distribution concept which may reflect industrial and regional differences and the combination of administrative allocation and negotiation. Taking “industry” as the mainline, it primary emission rights’ differential equitable distribution model which is the combination of the first grade allocation (which indicates the provincial quota will be decomposed to various industries first, and that of each industry will be distributed to cities quota from industry to city”) and the second grade (which means the criterions are determined by each province and the parameters are regulated by each city). The factors of government industry planning, industry differences and regional differences and so on are synthesized to establish the indicator systems of both industrial and regional quota allocation, and models the industry and regional quota allocation by using multiple attribute comprehensive index method. Considering employing the correction dissymmetry Nash negotiation model of government administrative allocation factor, the project raises the optimization algorithm for primary emission rights’ differential equitable distribution, and eventually determines the model and method of primary emission rights’ differential equitable distribution, which can provide technical support for the primary emission right distribution in China.

初始排污权公平分配须解决两个关键问题：实现怎样的公平、怎样实现公平。本项目根据可持续发展理论，结合总量控制和排污权交易制度价值，界定初始排污权分配的差异性公平内涵，建立其差异性公平体系及分配原则；在原有政府行政分配的基础上，引入区域间横向公平对比谈判机制，研究确定体现行业差异与区域差异的、行政分配与协商谈判相结合的初始排污权差异性公平分配理念；以“行业”为主线，建立“省到行业、行业到市”一级分配与“省级定标准、市级调参数”二级分配相结合的初始排污权差异性公平分配模式；综合政府产业规划、行业差异和区域差异等因素，建立行业配额分配和区域配额分配的指标体系，运用多指标综合指数法建立行业配额分配模型和区域配额分配模型；考虑运用“政府行政分配因子”修正不对称Nash谈判模型，研究提出初始排污权差异性公平分配的优化算法，最终确定初始排污权差异性公平分配的模式与方法，为我国初始排污权分配提供技术支撑。

自 2013 年 1 月我国中东部地区出现多年罕见的严重“雾霾”天气以来，公众对雾霾的关注逐渐达到高峰。排污权交易是污染控制的一种重要环境经济手段，已经被证明是一种成本有效的市场机制。公平合理的初始排污权分配是排污权交易能否有效运行的重要前提和基础。本项目在借鉴国内外初始排污权分配经验的基础上，综合考虑国家和地区发展战略、区域差异、行业差异和企业差异，探索了树立初始排污权分配的“差异性公平”理念；以省域初始排污权分配为研究对象，引入了不对称 Nash谈判机制，探索了建立政府行政分配与区域协商谈判相结合的差异性公平实现模式；运用了政府行政分配因子修正不对称Nash 谈判模型， 研究建立了初始排污权差异性公平分配的优化算法，并最终确定差异性公平视角下初始排污权差异性公平分配模式与优化算法，为我国初始排污权分配提供技术支撑。结果显示，与基准年排放量占比相比，基于区域差异的分配方案变化不大（-15.22%~4.48%），但基于行业差异的分配方案因化学纤维制造业（30.0%）和黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业（27.2%）配额影响而变化很大（-87.83%~154.22%）。考虑传统总量指标配额行政直接分配模式单一，运用Nash谈判模型对分配结果进行谈判优化，结果显示综合耦合情景下的COD配额分配结果因综合区域差异和行业差异而基本得到了所有市的认可，综合满意度为89.02%；而区域差异情景下的COD配额分配结果，因更接近于基准年排放量占比而得到除吉林市和通化市以外的其他7个城市的认可，优化博弈后的满意度最高（89.25%）；一般耦合情景和行业差异情景，因部分配额高指标行业集中到吉林市和通化市，存在很大的争议；博弈结果显示各市并不希望配额指标分配结果偏离基准年太多。因此，实现省域总量控制指标差异性公平分配，引入政府横向公平谈判机制博弈优化差异性配置方案，识别满意度最高或认可度最高的谈判优化方案，实现总量控制指标分配的差异性公平。