土地因素对农村劳动力转移影响的机制、路径及区域差异研究

Taking typical provinces for study area and rural household for investigation unit, the normative and empirical research methods were applied to analyze the effects of land factors, including land endowment, the status of land property rights, land property rights transfer, residential land and housing conditions and etc., on rural-urban migration. On the basis of the New Economics of Labor Migration and Geography of Rural Household, the theory of rural household behavior, labor economics theory and institutional economics theory were applied to build the theoretical model of the impact of land factors on rural-urban migration; the Logistic Model and Multiple Discrete Choice Logit Model and Tobit Model were applied to analyze the effect and its regional differences of land factors on rural-urban migration decision-making status quo; the Logistic Model and Multiple Discrete Choice Logit Model were applied to analyze the effect and its regional differences of land factors on permanent rural-urban migration willingness; the Structural Equation model was applied to analyze in-depth the effect path and degree and its regional difference of land factors on rural-urban migration decision-making and permanent rural-urban migration willingness. The project revealing effect mechanism, path and regional difference of land factors on rural-urban migration, has important practical and theoretical significance for accelerating economic and social development and implementing the new type of urbanization and achieving the complete rural-urban migration of rural labor by implementation of rural land reform.

本项目以典型省份为研究区域，以农户为调查单元，运用规范及经验研究方法，剖析土地禀赋、土地产权流转行为、土地产权状况、宅基地及住房状况等土地因素对农户劳动力转移的影响。运用农户行为学、劳动经济学及制度经济学学理论，在新劳动力迁移经济理论及农户地理论的基础上，构建土地因素对农村劳动力转移影响的理论模型；运用Logistic模型、多元离散选择Logit模型及Tobit模型研究土地因素对农户劳动力转移决策现状的影响及区域差异；运用Logistic模型及多元离散选择Logit模型剖析土地因素对农户劳动力永久转移意愿的影响及区域差异；运用结构方程模型深入剖析土地因素对农户劳动力转移决策及永久转移意愿的影响路径及区域差异。本项目揭示土地因素对劳动力转移影响的机制、路径及区域差异，对实施农村土地改革以实现农村劳动力向城镇彻底迁移，加速经济社会发展及实施新型城镇化具有重要的实践意义和理论意义。

本项目以典型省份为研究区域，以农户为调查单元，运用规范及经验研究方法，研究土地因素对农户劳动力转移的影响机制、路径及区域差异。基于新劳动力迁移经济理论及农户地理论的基础上，构建土地因素对农村劳动力转移影响的理论模型；运用Logistic模型和结构方程模型剖析土地因素对农户劳动力转移影响的区域差异、影响路径及影响效应；构建农地流转意愿计量模型，从农户认知和农户特征两个视角分别剖析农户农地流转决策的影响因素；构建C-D生产函数模型，以农地流转促进农地经营规模增加进而提高农民农业收入为逻辑起点，剖析农地经营规模对不同类型农民农业收入的影响；基于福利经济学分配论和补偿原理建立宅基地价值生产函数，运用比较研究法、模型分析法，计算各生产要素的边际贡献率以确定各相关权利主体的退出补偿范围及收益分配方案。研究发现：（1）土地因素对不同农地资源禀赋和地貌类型区域农户劳动力转移的影响具有一定共性和显著的区域差异性；（2）农户劳动力转移与土地流转之间存在相互作用关系，土地因素除直接对劳动力转移产生影响外，还通过土地流转行为间接地影响劳动力转移；（3）农户永久定居城镇意愿、外出务工劳动力比例、城镇工作向往程度、农村未来生活预期程度、农地收入功能、农地撂荒限制程度等显著影响农户农地流转决策；（4）农地经营规模扩大有效增加了农户农业纯收入和劳均农业纯收入，却未能有效提高地均农业纯收入；（5）退出宅基地农户的最低补偿额应大于其机会成本，最高补偿额不高于宅基地价值生产函数中农户应分得的宅基地价值与农户退出后的投资风险成本之和，村集体的补偿额应为宅基地价值生产函数中村集体应分得的宅基地价值；地方政府的退出补偿额应不超过其所享受的外部性价值。本项目揭示土地因素对劳动力转移影响的机制、路径及区域差异，对实施农村土地改革以实现农村劳动力向城镇彻底迁移，加速经济社会发展及实施新型城镇化具有重要的实践意义和理论意义。