黑河流域生态系统结构特征与过程集成及生态情景研究

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of vegetation, quantification of the dynamics of ecosystem structure and key eco-hydrological processes, and establishment of realistic scenarios are the important basis for developing a coupled ecohydrological model with high prediction ability in the Heihe basin. We will analyze the existing research results from various studies under the Heihe Research Plan, conduct field observations, run simulation models and perform scenario analysis. Then, we will investigate the spatial distribution pattern and ecological adaptability of vegetation, compile the 1:100000 scale vegetation map of the Heihe Basin, explore temporal and spatial variation of vegetation structure as well as controlling factors and their hydrological effects, and establish a complete ecological parameter database for the typical ecosystems in the study basin. We will also build a series of future scenarios for changes in natural vegetation structure in the upper reaches, in landscape patterns in the middle reaches, and in the desert oasis and terminal lake in the lower reaches. This research program will provide a solid scientific database for the building of an integrated eco-hydrological model that contributes to comprehensive management and decision-making in the Heihe Basin.

深刻认识黑河流域植被空间分布特征、定量刻画流域生态系统结构动态与关键生态水文过程、合理制定流域生态情景是构建黑河流域生态水文综合模型和提高预测能力的重要基础。本项目基于黑河重大研究计划的已有研究成果，采用野外调查、实验观测、模型模拟和情景分析等方法，辨析流域植被空间分布格局与生态适应性，编制全流域1:10万植被类型图，探究主要植被结构的时空变化特征、影响因素及水文效应，建立典型生态系统完整生态参数集，合理构建上游植被结构组成变化、中游景观格局变化、下游荒漠绿洲规模和尾闾湖变化的全流域生态情景集，为黑河流域生态水文综合模型构建和管理决策提供支撑。

本项目采用野外调查、实验观测、遥感解译，模型模拟和情景分析等方法，编制了全流域群系水平的1:10万植被类型图，制定了黑河流域生态水文参数集，包括生态水文参数2827条，其中上游植被子集1844条，荒漠植被子集528条，天然绿洲植被子集455条；制定了全流域生态情景集，上游生态情景包括现状、潜在及不同气候变化和放牧情景下的植被分布格局；中下游生态情景包括上游不同来水条件和未来气候变化下的中游景观格局、下游荒漠绿洲和尾闾湖生态情景。揭示了黑河流域植被空间分布格局与多尺度生态适应性。评估了黑河流域水资源与生态需水现状及存在的问题，提出了黑河流域生态安全和社会经济可持续发展的政策建议，为黑河流域生态水文综合模型构建和管理决策提供了科学支撑。