气候变化背景下新疆水文灾害风险评估

Due to the influence of global climate change, natural disaster especially on hydrological disasters,in arid region,is becoming more and more serious.Instability and sudden of hydrological disasters increased significantly.So the research mainly analyze the relationship of hydrological disaster risk assessment and climate change in arid region based on the traditional mathematics probability theory, system theory, fuzzy mathematics theory, by means of quantitative research, analysis technology and method as the means such as principle companent analysis, fuzzy mathematics, AHP method, GA-PP model and Monte Carlo method. This study discussed the type, composition and characteristic of hydrological disaster based on systematic analysis of the structure of arid region system on climate change. We analyze the composition and characteristics of hydrological disaster risk system from disaster factor hazard, hazard-bearing bodies vulnerability, exposure and disaster formative environments, and proposed the method and technological process of risk assessment of hydrological disaster risk assessment on climate change in Xinjiang. After further investigating the the hydrological disasters and disaster risk formation mechanism, we construct the risk assessment theory frame, index system, method and the model of risk assessment on climate change, and we calculate the risk rank and draw the corresponding risk figure by means of GIS. This study provides the general procedure and calculation method of systematic analysis and decision, and it can be seen from the model calculation conditions that it is universally applicable for sorting and assessment problems in arid region based on climate change. The results can also enrich and develop hydrological disaster risk management theory basis and method system, and has very important scientific value and realistic meaning on building better security protection system to achieve hydrological disaster prevention, mitigation and disaster management as well as socio_economic stability and sustainable development in the arid region.

新疆干旱区生态环境脆弱，水文灾害频发，并且随着气候变化，其突发性加大，灾害性增强，影响范围和程度也日趋扩大。本项目以新疆气候变化为基础，以自然灾害风险评价为主线，以致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和孕灾环境为研究对象，以气候变化背景下干旱区水文灾害风险评估为核心，探讨干旱区水文灾害风险评估方法，构建适合干旱区气候变化背景下水文灾害评估指标体系，分析气候变化背景下新疆水文灾害突发性和不确定性，揭示其时空分布特征及其演化趋势，构建干旱区水文灾害综合评估模型，并采用模糊综合评价法、加权主成分分析、GA-PP模型、灰色预测法、蒙特卡洛法等多种方法对新疆水文灾害风险进行对比分析评估，绘制新疆水文灾害风险分布图，预测未来气候变化情景下新疆水文灾害风险变化趋势。本项研究不仅可为未来气候变化背景下干旱区灾害风险定量评估探索新径，而且研究成果还可以为政府部门进行科学的防灾、减灾及灾害管理提供决参考。

本项目基于气候变化对区域水文灾害带来重大影响这一事实，首先系统收集新疆各个地区各种类型的水文灾害，构建新疆水文灾害数据库，其次，分析了以新疆水文灾害的时空分布特征、年代际发生规律及其与极端气候因子的关系。在此基础上，探讨了新疆水文灾害风险评估流程，从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的脆弱性、暴露性、孕灾环境稳定性和防灾抗灾能力四方面构建了新疆冰雹灾害、洪涝灾害、雪灾、泥石流灾害及有干旱缺水引起的沙质荒漠化灾害的风险评估指标体系和每级指标风险等级划分标准，最后建立了研究区域基于地理信息系统的水文灾害影响因子评价数据库，构建新疆水文灾害危险性、脆弱性、易损性风险评估模型及综合评估模型，开发了研究区水文灾害风险评估与预警原型软件系统，分析了新疆各县市各种水文灾害的风险分布情况，辨析提取了新疆水文灾害风险最高的类型和地区，绘制了新疆主要水文灾害风险图，揭示了新疆水文灾害风险的时空分布特征及其演化趋势。本研究成果为政府部门进行科学的防灾、减灾及灾害管理提供参考，为干旱区社会经济可持续发展提供科技支撑。