我国钢铁行业的减碳机制仿真研究

A specific method of "bottom-up" route adopted, this project will study steel output and mechanism of reducing-carbon-emissions in Chinese steel industry from the industry level,comprehensively considering steel output and carbon dioxid emissions per unite of steel output. the route and methodology of study in the project can not only avoide the hollow of its maro-policy studied, but also accord with the actual characteristics of Chinese steel industry. Study content will mainly include: 1) in the study stage, firstly extensive field research and data collection will be excuted, and then the life-span model of steel product can be established baed on a vast scale of steel product's data in China,such as output, consumption structure,depreciation amount, life-span in service and so on.Thereafter, we will determine the average expectancy life-span of steel products in China and analyze the infulencing rule of law and some other factors.2) Based on life-span in service of steel product a quantitatie relationship between the steel output in service and economic growth can be ascertain, and the changing mechanism of steel output per GDP(Gross Domestic Product) which is an important indicators to control the harmony relationship between steel industry development and ecomomic development. By gist of above analyses, both model of steel output in service and steel output growth can be constructed.3) C network of steel industry will be fabricated in the industry level by the use of observing-material-flow analysis, and then some key points of reduction carbon emisssion can be identified. And system of assessmental index about C load would be built at the level of steel industry. According to some advanced technologied which have existed in the whole world, the optimization technological system of reducing carbon in steel industry can be built, thererafter, we could draw up the technological route of reducing carbon emission in Chinese steel industry and analyze its influencing factors.4)Generalizing the above optimization analysis and calculation, based on the model and method of system dynamics the reasonable steel output and the optimal carbon reduction in Chinese steel industry could be achieved and simulated on the condition of double objects to confine which are steel products meeting economic development and realizing the task of carbon reduction, and finaly bring up some policy recommendations of fulfilling the dual goal. And finally Chinese steel industy can be implemented the road of sustainable development.

本项目采用"自下而上"的研究路线，将钢产量(外部)和单位钢碳负荷（内部）综合考虑，从行业层面上研究我国钢铁行业的减碳机制，既可避免其宏观政策研究的空洞性，又符合我国钢铁行业特点，研究包括：1）基于我国各类钢铁产品产量、消费结构、折旧量、使用年限等数据分析，建立钢产品使用寿命模型，揭示影响我国钢铁产品平均寿命关键因素的作用规律。2）基于钢产品平均寿命，弄清钢产量、在役钢量、碳负荷与经济之间的定量关系，并阐明宏观调控指标-单位GDP钢产量的变化机理及影响因素，进而构建在役钢量和钢产量模型。3）采用跟踪物质流方法，构建钢铁行业的碳素流网络，辨识其减碳关键点，建立钢铁行业层面上的碳负荷评价指标体系，提出我国钢铁行业碳负荷减排技术路线图。4）采用系统动力学方法，模拟、分析在满足经济发展对钢产品需求和完成减碳任务的双重约束下，探究我国钢铁行业的碳负荷减排潜力，为实现我国钢铁行业的持续发展提供理论基础。

本项目首先在收集六大类钢铁产品的产量、消费量、折旧量等近10年的数据的基础上分析，表明建筑业的钢铁产品消费量占我国总的43%-53.7%，比重最大，轻工业的钢铁产品的消费量比重最小，仅5%左右。主要因为我国在经济飞速发展时期的一些不合理用钢，带来很多无效钢。其次，采用“自下而上”的研究方法，构建了钢铁产品的使用寿命模型，基于钢铁产品的消费结构和使用期限，弄清了我国钢铁产品的平均使用寿命约在22-25年之间，使用寿命相对较短，归咎于建筑使用寿命过短，尤其是近15年我国建筑的质量和大量拆迁工程的影响。接着，基于因素分解法，构建钢产量分析模型和识别出影响我国钢产量的主要因素为在役钢量、钢铁产品的使用寿命、单位在役钢生产力、单位GDP钢产量四个，其中单位GDP钢产量的贡献率逐渐增加的，且钢铁产品的使用寿命和产品结构是关键。对此，要控制我国钢产量的过快增长，必须调整钢铁产品的消费结构和产品的使用寿命。然后，采用跟踪物质流分析方法，对我国钢铁行业的典型生产流程进行碳素流网络构建与分析，长流程焦化工序中洗精煤碳排放量占焦化工序的82.17%、高炉炼铁工序中焦炭作为还原剂产生的碳排放量占该工序总排放量的54.13%，且对副产煤气的二次利用效率仍可提高空间。同时，由于我国钢产量增长过快，引起废钢资源严重不足，导致我国电炉炼钢出现铁水代替废钢的奇怪现象，使“中国式短流程生产”并未出现显著的碳减排响应。对此，从工序能耗、燃料组成、技术特征、资源效率等四个层面构建了我国钢铁行业碳负荷评价指标体系，分析各自贡献率。最后，采用情景分析方法，运用系统动力学、神经网络、多函数等模型模拟，结合减碳技术路线，提出实现2020-2025年期间我国碳排放总量减排的目标，并相对于2005年的钢铁工业碳的排放总量的有很大降低的情景方案，尤其提出了多管齐下的调整钢铁产品消费政策和对建筑、基础设施用钢的调整建议，该研究成果可为我国钢铁的减碳政策制定和可持续发展战略提供一定的理论支持。