基于北极新航线的集装箱枢纽港选址和班轮运输网络设计

Due to global warming. the retreating Arctic sea ice exposes unprecedented opportunities and challenges to maritime shipping industry. Northwest Passage (NWP) and Northern Sea Route (NSR) are the two emerging transarctic routes which can shorten the shipping distance from Asia to Europe and from Asia to North America about 33% and 40% respectively. Currently, cargo ships need ice-breaking equipment to pass through the two shipping routes in summer. But in the coming 50 years, these shipping routes will be gradually operational. To minimize operation cost, shipping companies will continuously adjust their service strategies according to Arctic status.They need to find potential hub locations and redesign their liner shipping network. This project will trace the operations of container liner shipping companies and analyse the characteristics and influencing factors of shipping services; Build a global physical shipping network based on the new Arctic shipping routes. Conduct a container traffic assignment on the network and find potenail container hub locations through node analyses; Analyze container flow in the physical shipping network and potential container hub ports to build liner shipping network design model and devise effective heuristic algorithm; At last, a simulation model will be built to velidate and evaluate the operations in the designed liner shipping network. The development of the entire model will be based on our own general platform: MicroCity. To provide decision making theories and tools to support shipping companies and container ports.

随着全球气候变暖，日益缩小的北极冰盖为海运业带来了前所未有的机遇与挑战。北冰洋上西北通道和北海路线的出现使东亚到北美和欧洲的航海距离缩短30%以上。未来30年内，北极航线在夏季将逐渐从现在的破冰通航直至完全通航。各班轮公司亟待解决基于北极新航线的集装箱枢纽港选址和班轮运输网络设计以求降低营运成本。本项目拟通过对集装箱班轮公司的营运跟踪调查，系统分析班轮运输服务特性及其影响因素；建立以北极新航线为基础的全球水路物理网络，在其基础上构建集装箱流量分配模型并离散选择模型标识潜在的集装箱枢纽港；进一步分析水路物理网络上的集装箱流量和潜在的集装箱枢纽港构建班轮运输网络设计模型并设计高效的启发式算法；最后建立班轮运输网络营运仿真模型来评估设计方案。整个模型的开发拟采用具有自主知识产权的通用空间分析与仿真平台，为我国政府、航运企业及集装箱港口的规划发展提供决策支持的理论和工具。

北极航线的出现极大的缩短了世界各国的海上交通距离，但是航线网络设计面临的挑战使得政府和航运企业对未来的海上运输难以做出决策。本项目通过对集装箱班轮公司的营运跟踪调查，系统分析了班轮运输服务特性及其影响因素；建立了以北极新航线为基础的全球水路物理网络，在其基础上构建集装箱流量分配模型并离散选择模型标识潜在的集装箱枢纽港；进一步分析了水路物理网络上的集装箱流量和潜在的集装箱枢纽港构建班轮运输网络设计模型并设计高效的启发式算法；最后建立班轮运输网络营运仿真模型来评估设计方案。整个模型的开发采用了具有自主知识产权的通用空间分析与仿真平台，为我国政府、航运企业及集装箱港口的规划发展提供决策支持的理论和工具。