电力市场化转型期的西南径流与能源协同利用及其调控策略

The Southwest hydrologic system comprises abundant water resources from valley glaciers, due to high altitudes. Meanwhile, following the emerging electricity market restructuring, coordinated exploration and utilization of Southwest water resources and energy plays an important role in China’s clean energy strategy. Since management theories during the utility transition period are still immature, the operation of hydrologic system at this stage cannot appropriately reflect the Southwest hydrologic pattern. Therefore, this project proposes the research on the coordinated control and use of Southwest water resources and energy, aiming to: 1) identify the uncertain variations of the Southwest hydrologic system; 2) capture the economic features when promoting the electricity market reform; 3) realize the coordination of natural resources, markets and governments at a macro level. Moreover, a stochastic decision-making model will be proposed for hydro power generation companies with various portfolios and cascading water resources. This model is built on the basis of the temporal and geographical variations of the hydrologic system, while taking into account other uncertain factors such as a complementary system of wind, solar and hydro power, massive west-to-east power transmission, distributed generation and demand-side management, etc. Mathematically, this model is a multi-level optimization problem, in order to determine the optimal control strategy without disobeying the hydrology department and electricity market rules. Practical values of this project include: 1) promoting the development of theories in terms of managing water resources, energy, economics, and environment in the Southwest; 2) extending the practical applications of complex management theory and stochastic decision-making theory.

针对地处高寒山区、具有丰富冰雪冻土融水资源，在新一轮电力体制改革即将开展的背景下，西南径流与能源的协同开发与利用，对实施我国清洁能源战略具有重大作用。现有水电运营缺乏合理反映气候变化下径流演变规律，尤其是转型期市场决策和调控策略的理论体系支撑。为此，本项目针对未来多源径流的不确定性演变，遵循电力交易由计划向市场转型的技术经济特征，开展西南径流与能源协同利用及其调控策略研究，实现径流、电力、市场和政府的相互协调与制约。基于季节性径流剧烈波动的水量时空耦合、水风光互补消纳、大规模西电东送、可控负荷参与的运营随机环境刻画，构建多个区域/省级市场上多种交易品种的流域梯级水电公司随机决策模型。通过设计多层优化决策的随机变换及其计算方法，开展兼顾水利部门规制和电力市场交易的调控策略优化。研究成果有望形成促进径流、能源、经济和环境协同发展的西南水电运营理论体系，拓展复杂管理系统随机决策理论及其应用范畴。

面对深入推进的电力市场改革，地处高寒山区峡谷、冰川雪山纵横交织的西南径流与能源协同开发与利用，对实施我国清洁能源战略具有重大作用。现有水电运营缺乏能够合理反映气候变化下西南径流演变规律，尤其是转型期市场决策和调控策略的理论体系。为此，本项目针对西南径流的未来不确定性演变，遵循计划向市场交易转型的技术经济特征，开展电力市场化转型期的西南径流与能源协同利用及其调控策略研究，实现径流、电力、市场和政府的相互协调与制约。研究内容重点涉及流域水风光概率时空分布建模及评估、高比例水-风-光接入的区域电网稳定机理分析、水-风-光-荷互补系统优化调度、考虑水电调控的风光消纳优化配置及电网规划、兼顾水利部门规制与电力市场交易的调控策略等方面。研究成果形成了促进径流、能源、经济和环境协调发展的西南水电运营理论体系，拓展复杂管理系统随机决策理论及其应用范畴。. 在国内外重要期刊上发表SCI论文21篇(项目负责人作为第一作者/通讯作者论文9篇，影响因子大于3.0论文15篇)、EI论文7篇、英文专著(含章节)2部；获发明专利4项、实用新型专利3项、软件著作权4项。研究成果已成功应用于西南水电和酒泉风电大规模入湘、澳大利亚国家示范工程和“一带一路”东南亚能源战略实施等实际场景，取得了良好的经济效益和社会效益。