深部采动诱发非导水断层活化突水的不确定性分析及风险评估模型研究

The similar material model test will be designed to simulate the physical process of water inrush induced by fault activation, and uncover the evolution rules of fault walls slipping and moving in consideration of the coupling action between mining stress field and high-pressure water seepage field; Learn the relationship between the multidimensional factors coupling action as well as their evolution and response parameters, and extract the multidimensional factors and their influence degree to make a proper evaluation on fault activation induced by deep mining; According to the test data and coal mine investigation on water inrush cases of fault activation, identify the uncertainty characteristics of impact factors of fault activation water inrush, including randomness, fuzziness and unascertainty, deduce the uncertain multidimensional parameter space describing water inrush risk of fault activation induced by deep mining, and reveal quantitatively the endogenous transmission mechanism of water inrush uncertainty characteristics of fault activation induced by deep mining; Considering the multi-dimension and complexity of uncertain parameters, the global sensitivity analysis method will be used to acquire the sensitivity coefficients of multi-parameter synergistic action to water inrush risk, and then determine the main control parameters of water inrush uncertainty; Based on the fuzzy set theory as well as stochastic simulation method, establish the fuzzy- probabilistic hybrid model to express the randomness and fuzziness of main control parameters, and realize lean evaluation on the risk level of water inrush of fault activation induced by deep mining. This project is to deepen the understanding of the propagation mechanism for water inrush uncertainty of fault activation induced by deep mining, and provide a new idea for risk assessment and early warning of fault water inrush.

考虑采动应力场及高压水渗流场耦合作用，设计相似材料模拟试验，再现非导水断层活化突水的物理过程，揭示采动诱发断层两盘错动滑移的演化规律；获知多维因素耦合效应及其演化与参数响应之间的关系，提取评价采动诱发非导水断层活化程度所需的多维因素及其影响程度；依据实验结果和断层突水案例，辨识断层活化突水诸多影响因子的随机性、模糊性等不确定性特征，构建非导水断层采动活化型突水风险的不确定性多维参数空间，模拟揭示断层活化突水不确定性特征的内生传递机理；考虑不确定性参数的多维复杂性，基于全局灵敏度定性与定量分析方法获得多个参数协同作用对突水风险的灵敏度系数，确立不确定性主控参数；进而基于模糊集理论与随机模拟方法，建立能够表达模糊和随机不确定性的混合模糊-随机模型，实现采动诱发非导水断层活化突水风险等级的精益评估。该项目深化了对断层活化突水不确定性传递机理的认识，为其风险评估与预警预报提供新的思路与方法。

据统计，80%的突水事故都发生在有断层等构造的裂隙岩体中，且其中多数突水事故由原始地质条件下的非导水断层在采动效应影响下诱发活化而导致。工作面回采过程中原生构造及由于采动影响而导致的新生构造都有可能成为突水通道，但是深部采动应力场作用下非导水断层活化突水具有高度的不确定性，已经成为矿井突水的一种重要形式，制约我国煤炭经济发展的关键科学技术难题。本项目从贯穿煤层型底板裂隙和非贯穿煤层型底板裂隙两个方面，分析了采动裂隙带的发育及承压水导升高度的不断增大，对有效隔水层厚度的影响，求解了工作面采空区中部完整隔水层所能承担的极限水压力，试图从多维耦合的角度探讨断层活化突水的机理，为辨识底板突水主控因素奠定理论基础；设计了煤层底板承压水导升监测系统，并进行了实验研究。获得了在工作面回采过程中，底板岩体的应力变化规律，底板承压水的导升特性以及底板岩体的裂隙发育规律；在查阅大量煤矿井下突水事故调查报告，以及断层活化突水已有的研究成果的基础上，运用系统的观点和方法对资料进行分析总结，构建了采动诱发非导水断层活化突水的复杂网络模型。并从网络模型的整体属性和节点重要性两个方面进行了网络结构分析，构建了断层活化突水风险不确定性的多维参数空间，并辨识出断层活化突水风险不确定的主控因素；利用云模型实现了对突水不确定性主控因素定性评价与定量分析之间的转换，利用逆向云模型绘制标尺云图，利用云模型扩展的层次分析法分配权重，利用虚拟综合云模型计算风险云与标尺云的贴近程度，从而精确测算出突水不确定性的预警等级；选择Python语言开发了突水风险预警系统，可以进行断层活化突水复杂网络的整体属性分析和节点重要性分析，以及得出突水风险预警等级，为煤矿预测突水风险提供决策支持。