转型期大城市就业空间演化及其机理研究——以济南为例

Under the background of institutional transformation and spatial reconstruction, the relation between the employment and the living space of the metropolis shows an obvious change that the separation of workplace and residence gradually becomes prominent. It is of great significance to comprehend and account for the employment space evolution and the influence of the separation of workplace and residence on the metropolitan space development in a scientific way. Through the empirical study on the metropolitan area of Jinan, this project is mainly to solve the following aspects: firstly, the spatial analysis technology and the modern spatial measurement approach are employed to reveal the evolution characteristics and law of the employment space pattern of the area. Secondly, the two-stage method and the parametric model are adopted to identify the job center and the sub-center of the area in different periods and experience the multi-center employment pattern of Jinan. Thirdly, the census data and the separation of workplace and residence measure model is applied to assess the degree of the spatial mismatch in workplace and residence of the metropolitan area of Jinan and the questionnaire survey is used to conduct the field research on typical street parts and explore the characteristics of the spatial mismatch in workplace and residence from the perspective of employees’ social economy property. Fourthly, based on commuting time, job accessibility model is constructed to measure the spatial heterogeneity of jobs-housing spatial mismatch. Finally, the mechanism analysis framework is constructed to analyze the mechanism of the spatial mismatch in workplace and residence from three aspects, namely government guidance, market regulation and personal preference by referring to the social and economic development history of Jinan’s metropolitan area.

制度转型与空间重构背景下，大城市的就业空间发生明显变化，职住分离现象逐渐凸显。科学认识与解释就业空间演化与职住分离对大城市的空间发展与规划具有重要意义。本项目通过济南市的实证研究，重点解决：第一，利用空间分析技术与现代空间计量方法揭示济南市就业空间格局的演化特征与规律；第二，利用参数模型识别不同时期济南市的就业中心与次中心，研究济南市就业多中心格局的发育程度与空间过程；第三，运用普查数据和职住偏离测度模型从宏微观尺度研究济南市职住分离的空间格局；基于问卷调查数据从就业者通勤行为研究不同区位的职住空间分离的差异性；第四，构建基于城市分区的就业空间可达性模型，测度济南市主城与新城的职住匹配的空间异质性。第五，构建机理分析框架，从政府引导、市场调控、社会变化、个人偏好四个方面分析就业空间演化的机理。

产业结构转型与新城建设所造成的城市就业空间格局变动与职住平衡问题，已成为城市规划过程中的重点关注问题。以东部大城市济南市为例，研究了不同尺度下的就业空间特征、探索与验证了就业的多中心模式，从宏观与微观尺度分析了职住平衡问题，基于公共交通测算了就业的空间可达性，并分析了就业空间演化的机理。第一，利用第六次人口普查数据、第二、三次经济普查数据，从都市圈、县域、街道三个尺度分析了济南市的就业空间格局特征。第二，基于街道单元、利用可视化技术与密度函数研究了济南市中心城区的就业多中心结构，结果显示，就业中心整体格局为典型的双中心特征，就业密度梯度在四个方向上呈现不均衡下降，就业密度受交通引导和地形限制较为突出。第三，职住平衡研究表明，内城区的职住平衡性较差，郊区的职住平衡性较好。中心区就业吸引力有增强的态势。Logistic模型的回归结果表明，性别、年龄、收入、教育水平、职业、交通等因素对职住偏离度都表现出了显著的影响。第四，基于公共交通的就业可达性呈现出明显的圈层特征，从主城区向郊区可达性形成一个明显的梯度，下降的趋势非常明显。第五，从城市空间规划、市场经济调控、社会结构变化以及个人偏好变化等方面分析了就业空间演化的机理。城市空间规划起到引导作用，通过公共政策的设定直接影响就业空间格局。市场经济主要通过促进劳动力的流动达到重构就业空间。社会结构和个人偏好作为潜在因素，从侧面影响就业空间的演化。通过本项目的研究，一定程度上补充与完善城市社会空间结构的理论，为该类研究提供了案例与素材，同时也可为城市空间发展提供决策依据