空间贫困视角下的中国农村多尺度贫困度量及其时空分布耦合效应分析

To respond to the current national "accurate poverty alleviation" strategy’s urgent need to measure the multidimensional poverty of multi-scale farmer-village-county, from the perspective of spatial poverty, this project will focus on the key techniques of measuring multi-scale rural poverty and detecting the spatiotemporal action mechanism of poverty contributing factors, specifically including: (1) Based on the three-dimensional poverty analysis framework of sustainable livelihood-vulnerability-social exclusion, constructing multi-scale poverty measurement model that targeting both region and population, as well as integrated considering resource environment and social economic conditions, to ensure the robustness of the model;(2)Designing spatial-hierarchical generalized linear model to explore factors significantly affect poverty level on different scales, so as to reveal the interaction of the variables among farmer- village- county layer, as well as to detect the action intensity and action direction of multi-scale factors;(3) Based on improved spatial markov chain, proposing the scale effect analysis and spatial decomposition method of the regional poverty difference, exploring multi-scale spatiotemporal differentiation and its coupling effect, discussing the formation mechanisms of different factors for poverty trap that comes from natural source, social improvement and economic development. All the above will serve the poverty target and the full grasp of the poverty characteristics from the perspective of practicality and foresight, as well as to improve the ability of government departments to help the poor.

针对当前国家“精准扶贫”战略对农户-村-县的多维多尺度贫困精准识别的迫切需求，研究空间贫困视角下的农村多尺度贫困度量及其时空分布影响因素作用机制探测的关键技术。主要包括：(1) 基于可持续生计-脆弱性-社会排斥三维贫困分析框架，构建瞄准区域与瞄准人口相结合的、综合考虑资源环境与社会经济条件的多尺度贫困度量模型，保证模型的稳健性；（2）设计空间多层线性综合模型,挖掘不同尺度层面上的贫困显著性影响因素，揭示农户个体-村-县各层变量间的交互作用，实现贫困影响因素作用方向和作用强度的多尺度探测；（3）基于改进的空间markov链等，研究区域贫困差异的尺度效应分析方法和空间分解方法，剖析贫困分布的多尺度时空分异及耦合效应，探讨不同因素在不同尺度层面间对自然-社会-经济藕合形成的贫困陷阱的作用机制。从实用性和前瞻性的角度服务于贫困对象的精确瞄准和贫困特征的全面把握，辅助提升政府部门扶贫决策能力。

项目针对扶贫开发瞄准机制对农户-村-县多维多尺度贫困特征识别的指标、方法及精度的业务和技术需求，通过空间信息技术在扶贫领域的创新性应用，研究了空间贫困视角下的农村多尺度贫困度量及其时空分布影响因素作用机制探测的关键技术。具体包括：构建了多尺度多维度贫困对象精准度量与识别模型，实现了户-村-县多尺度贫困特征及其分异的综合测度；兼顾尺度效应和空间效应，构建了空间多层线性综合模型, 探测了各级贫困对象的空间分布及其影响因素；围绕地理贫困陷阱形成要素，研究了地理环境和农村贫困不同尺度间耦合关系，揭示了空间贫困陷阱的结构演变特征，研判了贫困对象的贫困分布动态演变趋势。并以多尺度典型连片特困区为研究区，验证了上述模型和方法的先进性和可靠性。研究成果在贫困研究对象探究上，体现了从区域到人的微观化; 在贫困本质与成因分析中，体现了从收入到能力的内生性及从个体到环境的外延性;进而在脱贫导向选择上，辅助实现了普惠与精准的动态均衡。为提高扶贫开发举措的针对性和监测评估扶贫开发规划的实施效果提供辅助了决策支持。