全球项目“异律协调”涌现模型研究

Global projects always exceed investment and duration, behind such phenomenon is the challenge of generally insufficient design of organizational capability. This research studies the significantly underestimated "heteronomous coordination" emergent problem. Analyze the intrinsic characteristics of global projects, identify rigid factors of "time-space asynchrony" dimension and soft factors of "institution heterogeneity" dimension, and micro-interaction relationship between them; using computational organization theory and method, analyze "heteronomous coordination", construct a "heteronomous coordination" emergent model, which consists of an asynchronous information-processing demand network, a heterogeneous information-processing demand network and an adaptative agent-based model; adopting agent-based modeling technology, develop a simulation engine and a visual modeling platform, design theoretical experiment, simulate emergence of "heteronomous coordination", improve ideal behavior matrix, validate model, carry out empirical studies on two global project cases, design and improve special behavior matrix through regressive and estimated simulation experiments, verify model practicability. This research aims to construct a "heteronomous coordination" emergent model and simulation platform, break limitations of current project management technology and mathematical model, scientifically calculate "heteronomous coordination" and its distribution, promote research and practical application of quantitative design of global project organization.

针对全球项目超投资和超工期现象背后组织能力设计普遍不足挑战，研究被严重低估的"异律协调"涌现问题。分析全球项目固有特征，识别被"隐性工作"涌现模型忽略的"时空异步"维硬性要素和"制度异质"维软性要素，及其之间微观交互关系；运用计算组织理论和方法，对"异律协调"行为进行分析，构建由异步信息处理需求网络、异质信息处理能力网络、具有适应性行为的主体模型所组成的"异律协调"涌现模型；采用主体建模技术研发模拟引擎和可视化建模平台，设计理论性实验，模拟"异律协调"涌现，完善理想型行为矩阵，验证模型有效性；针对两个全球项目案例开展实证研究，通过回归性、预测性仿真实验，设计和完善特定类型的行为矩阵，验证模型实用性。本课题旨在通过建立"异律协调"涌现模型及仿真平台，突破现有项目管理技术和数理模型局限，科学计算"异律协调"及其分布，推进全球项目组织定量化设计研究和实践应用。

全球项目超投资和超工期现象严重，其本质是涌现的" 异律协调"挑战。研究分析了全球项目固有特征，识别了"时空异步"维硬性要素和"制度异质"维软性要素，及其相互间的微观交互关系;并对"异律协调"行为进行分析，构建了具有适应性行为的主体模型所组成的"异律协调"涌现模型;研发了模拟引擎和可视化建模平台，验证了模型的有效性和实用性。研究成果"异律协调"涌现模型及仿真平台，不仅突破现有项目管理技术和数理模型局限，实现科学计算"异律协调"及其分布，而且成功用于商业实践，取得显著商业价值，推进全球项目组织定量化设计研究和实践应用。