东北地区人口流出与地方政府行为：特征事实、内在逻辑与政策意涵

Population outflow in northeast China has become a topic of general concern in all walks of life, which has not only aroused the high concern of the central government, but also been regarded as an important cause and direct consequence of the economic decline in Northeast China. How to explain the phenomenon of population outflow is the key to understanding and solving the problem of Northeast China, and it is also the focus of academic circles in the future.This project focuses on " Population Outflow and Local Government Behavior in Northeast China: Stylized Facts ，Inherent Logic and its Policy Implications", systematically puts forward the theoretical proposition of "economic development of population outflow and outflow land", and constructs the theoretical research framework of the economic development of population outflow from three aspects of microscopic mechanism, macroscopic fact and policy response. The problems of population loss and policy weakness in northeast China are analyzed in a targeted manner. In particular, it includes three aspects of the research content.First,we will objectively analyze the characteristics of population outflow and multi-dimensional change of population structure in Northeast China, and measure the path and effect of the influence of population outflow on Northeast China's economy.Second, we will construct a DSGE model with time dimension and geospatial dimension to analyze the internal logic of the influence of local government behavior on the spatial pattern of population and economic in Northeast China based on the theory of dynamic space growth.Third, according to the above research, we will put forward the feasible strategy choice of economic development in northeast China.

东北地区人口外流已经成为社会各界普遍关心的话题，不仅引起了中央层面的高度关注，也被视为东北经济下滑的重要原因和直接后果。如何解释东北人口外流现象是认知和破解东北问题的关键，也是未来学术界应该关注的重点。本项目将视角聚焦到“东北地区人口流出与地方政府行为：特征事实、内在逻辑与政策意涵”，系统地提出“人口流出与流出地经济发展”的理论命题，从微观机理、宏观事实与政策应对三方面构建人口流出地经济发展问题的理论研究框架，有针对性地解析目前东北人口流失与政策乏力等问题。具体包括三个方面的研究内容，第一，客观解析东北地区人口外流与人口结构多维变动的特征事实，测度东北人口外流对东北经济产生影响的路径与效果；第二，构建包含时间维度和地理空间维度的DSGE模型，基于动态空间增长理论解析地方政府行为对东北地区人口和经济空间格局演变产生影响的内在逻辑。第三，根据以上研究提出人口流出地经济发展的可行性策略选择。

本项目基于东北地区人口流出与地方政府行为：特征事实、内在逻辑与政策意涵进行理论和实证分析。第一，系统地提出“人口流出与流出地经济发展”的理论命题，从微观机理、宏观事实与政策应对三方面构建人口流出地经济发展问题的理论研究框架，有针对性地解析目前东北人口流失、空间扩张与政策乏力问题，促进区域经济协调发展。第二，客观解析东北地区人口外流与人口结构多维变动的特征事实，基于东北县市尺度的面板数据测度东北地区人口外流对东北经济产生影响的具体路径与效果，科学解释东北人口的大量流失和经济增速的“断崖式”下跌的非同步特征。第三，讨论了人口流出地与人口流入地的财政支出行为对居民政府信任度的影响。我们使用2012年、2014年和2016年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据库的数据研究财政支出偏向对政府信任的影响，即增加财政教育支出和基础设施建设支出对居民的政府信任水平的影响有何不同。