鄱阳湖地区农村宅基地转型及其生态风险影响研究

China has been experiencing a sustainable economic and social transition, which also induces profound land use transition, so that the study of land use transition has become a classic paradigm in the research region of land change sciences. As a typical ecological economy zone of China, the Poyang Lake region (PLR)not only plays an important role in the development of Yangtze River economic belt, but also has a core position in the development of underdeveloped province in central China. It is also thought that there will be some advantages of backwardness in the PLR. At the same time, due to increasingly rural hollowing, the rural society of PLR is facing a profound transition which results in on-going transition of rural housing land. Under the background of transition, our project mainly study rural housing land transition and it impact on regional ecological risk in the PLR. Some advanced technologies and methods are used in our project, such as RS and GIS, spatial analysis, life cycle evaluation, matter-element analysis and extension assessment, scenario simulation, etc. In our project, the mutual feedback between rural transition development and land use patterns is discussed, while the mechanism and discipline of rural housing land transition are intensively studied.Then we further try to establish the responding parameters of ecological risk to rural housing land transition. Finally, some future scenarios of rural housing land transition and its effect on regional ecological risk are simulated. Our study mainly focuses on building the theoretical framework and methods of single-type land use transition, which are with the features of multi-scale synthesis, multi-factor coupling and multi-scenario simulating. Through the project study, scientific connotation of land change study is expected to enrich. The research results are also in favor of the optimization of rural housing land, protection of regional ecological security, as well as sustainable and sound development of rural settlement.

我国处于经济社会发展转型期，土地利用也发生深刻转型，土地利用转型研究因此成为土地变化科学研究领域一个经典范式。鄱阳湖地区是我国典型生态经济区，处于长江经济带重要区段，是中部欠发达省份核心发展区，具有较强后发优势。同时，该地区村庄空心化问题突出，乡村社会面临深刻转型，并伴随相应的农村宅基地转型。以上述转型发展为背景，综合运用遥感与GIS、空间分析、生态周期评价、物元分析与可拓学评价、情景模拟等技术方法，开展鄱阳湖地区农村宅基地转型及其生态风险影响研究。探讨乡村转型发展与土地利用形态互馈机制，揭示农村宅基地转型机理与规律，建立宅基地转型生态风险响应参数，模拟构建宅基地转型及其生态风险响应未来情景。形成多尺度综合、多要素耦合和多情景模拟的单一地类土地利用转型研究理论框架与方法。对丰富土地变化研究的科学内涵，强化农村宅基地优化利用，保障区域生态安全，促进农村人居环境持续健康发展都具有重要意义。

在全球变化背景下，我国经济社会持续转型，其中的关键性要素农村宅基地在转型过程中也表现出特有的时空动态与生态响应规律。本研究以经济社会转型为宏观背景，开展鄱阳湖地区农村宅基地转型及其生态风险影响研究，旨在丰富土地变化科学研究理论体系，同时为优化调控乡村建设空间格局，保护乡村生态空间及区域生态安全，促进农村和区域人居环境持续健康发展提供现实参考。.主要研究内容及成果如下：（1）农村宅基地转型利用初步调查研究。结果表明部分研究区农村宅基地面积超标严重与农村宅基地闲置并存，宅基地布局缺乏统筹规划，“空心村”现象普遍，这一方面受到外来投资力量扩大及周边城市快速发展影响，另一方面村民改善生活条件、进城务工、传统观念淡化等也是驱动这些变化的内在原因。（2）农村宅基地时空演化及其功能转型研究，揭示了鄱阳湖区典型县域农村宅基地时空演化特征，从农村宅基地人口承载功能、资产功能及居住功能三个子系分析了农村宅基地功能转型趋势。引入协调转型度概念模型，从“量”、“速”、“质”三个维度探讨了农村宅基地功能转型度、综合协调度及协调转型度，全面揭示了农村宅基地功能转型内在机制。（3）传统村落空间分布及保护发展策略研究，揭示了鄱阳湖流域传统村落空间分布差异、聚集类型及影响因素，提出了传统村落保护发展策略。（4）典型村庄农村居民点布局优化研究，通过构建农村居民点适宜性评价指标体系和分类准则，对鄱阳湖区典型村庄进行了布局优化研究，建设了微观层面的农村居民点进行布局优化方案。（5）土地生态系统服务价值研究，发现鄱阳湖流域生态系统服务价值持续下降，生态系统服务价值动态演化过程表现出明显的空间自相关性和空间聚集效应。（6）土地资产价值的时空动态研究表明，鄱阳湖流域土地经济价值持续增长，社会价值缓慢增长，生态价值趋于衰退，土地利用的经济、社会和生态价值不协调性趋于上升。