农业转移人口的住房多点配置对其持久性迁移的影响：机制与测度

With the policies of new-type urbanization implemented, such as reforming the household registration system and equalizing the basic public service, the household registration barriers to migration are getting further weakened, while the effect of housing on migration are becoming more and more remarkable to rural-urban migrants, especially to their permanent migration. Most of the rural-urban migrants live in rental housing in the working city, at the same time they have their own housing in the home countryside, and some of them buy a house in a small town near their rural home or near their working city, even in the working city of their children but not themselves, this phenomenon we call it “Multiple Housing Allocation”. This project begins with analyzing the status of rural-urban migration and the “multiple housing allocation” of rural-urban migrants. And then the theoretical analysis will build a path to study the impact of different location housings to rural-urban permanent migration. The empirical analysis will show the direct and the extent of the impact of different location housings to rural-urban permanent migration, from housing price, housing property and housing subsides. Finally, according to the results of the theoretical and empirical analysis, the corresponding policy suggestions will be put forward, some for the housing policy and some for the reform of rural and urban land system.

随着一系列“新型城镇化”政策措施的实行，农业转移人口迁移的户籍障碍进一步削弱，住房对农业转移人口迁移尤其是持久性迁移的影响日益突显。大部分农业转移人口在工作城镇租房居住，同时在农村老家拥有自己的住房，有些农业转移人口还在老家附近城镇、或工作附近城镇、或子女就业城镇等非工作城镇购买了住房，由此构成了农业转移人口的“住房多点配置”。本项目将对农业转移人口住房的多点配置对其持久性迁移的影响进行研究。首先，通过对农业转移人口迁移及其住房配置的现状分析，夯实研究的现实基础；然后，对农业转移人口在工作城镇、农村老家、非工作城镇的住房影响对其持久性迁移的机制进行分析，构建研究的理论依据；进而，从住房价格、住房产权、住房保障等多方面测度各类住房对农业转移人口持久性迁移的影响方向和影响程度，并对各类住房影响的交互作用进行测度；最后，总结分析结果，并据此提出相应的住房政策建议、城乡土地制度改革建议等。

农业转移人口规模庞大，其持久性迁移直接关乎城镇化的质量、住房与土地资源利用的效率等问题。随着一系列推进新型城镇化政策措施的实行，住房将对农业转移人口持久性迁移的影响凸显，而“住房多点配置”使住房对农业转移人口持久性迁移的影响更为复杂。本项目的主要研究内容，围绕农业转移人口的住房多点配置对其持久性迁移的影响展开，包括农业转移人口迁移及其住房配置的现状、多点配置的住房对农业转移人口持久性迁移的影响机制、农业转移人口住房多点配置对其持久性迁移影响的测度以及相关政策建议等。本项目的重要研究结果包括：①利用国家统计局农民工监测调查数据、中国流动人口动态监测调查数据、中国社会科学院课题组问卷调查数据等多渠道的大样本数据，从流入城镇、农村老家、非流入城镇三方面对农业转移人口的住房多点配置状况进行系统分析，弥补了以往研究中对此问题的研究不足与数据缺失。②对人口迁移的经典理论模型进行修正，构建农业转移人口迁移的效用函数与决策模型，将农业转移人口在流入城镇、农村老家、非流入城镇的多地住房纳入同一理论框架，分析多点配置的住房对农业转移人口持久性迁移的影响机制。③从住房产权、住房价格、住房保障多方面实证分析多点配置的住房对农业转移人口持久性迁移的影响。研究发现，对于农业转移人口持久性迁移意愿，流入城镇的住房产权影响正向显著、农村老家住房（宅基地）产权影响负向显著、非流入城镇的住房产权影响不显著，而且流入城镇的住房产权影响最大；流入城镇住房销售价格影响负向显著，周边城镇房价进一步强化了房价因素的影响；流入城镇住房租赁价格尚未显现出负向影响，但当房租收入比超过合理范围时负向影响显现；流入城镇住房保障影响正向显著，且产权型保障房影响显著而租赁型保障房影响不显著。本项目通过研究工作城镇、农村老家、非工作城镇的住房对农业转移人口持久性迁移影响的分析，为制定人口迁移、城乡住房与土地制度及政策提供了依据。