城乡人口迁移、新型农业经营主体发育与农业碳排放研究

Agriculture is the main source of greenhouse gases emissions. Agricultural carbon emissions reduction not only relates to realization of the emissions reduction target in China, and to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution, protect rural ecological environment, has important practical significance, thus caused the wide attention from society. With the deepening of the urbanization, the scale of population migration from rural to urban will be significantly increased, So as to accelerating rural land circulation, raising the new agricultural management entities, slowing land fragmentation, and innovating of agricultural management pattern, which will affect the agricultural carbon emissions in China. This project by using the theory of resource allocation and factor price, on the basis of clearing the relationship of population migration from rural to urban and development of the new agricultural management entities, from two aspects of land fragmentation and agricultural management mode, trying to explore the influence mechanism of population migration from rural to urban and development of the new agricultural management entities on agricultural carbon emissions. This project will in Anhui province as a case and choice the three typical regions of different social and economic background of Anhui province , through the questionnaire obtain relevant micro data, by means of econometric analysis methods, such as multivariate regression model and the Probit model, testing the existence of this mechanism and its influence. Not only expand the horizon of forefathers' research, this study also provide the theoretical support for the optimization of carbon emission reduction policy in China's agriculture.

农业是温室气体的主要排放源。农业的减排，不仅关系到我国减排目标的实现，而且对于减少农业面源污染，保护农村生态环境，具有重要的现实意义，因此引起了社会的广泛关注。随着城镇化的不断深入，城乡人口迁移的规模显著提升，从而加速农村土地流转，催生新型农业经营主体发育，引致农地细碎化的减缓以及农业经营模式的创新，影响着我国农业的碳排放。本项目运用资源配置理论、要素价格理论，在廓清城乡人口迁移与新型农业经营主体发育的关系基础上，从农地细碎化、农业经营模式两个方面，试图探讨城乡人口迁移、新型农业经营主体发育对农业碳排放的影响机制。以安徽省为案例地，选择三个社会经济背景不同的典型地区，通过问卷调查，获取相关微观数据，借助多元回归模型、Probit模型等计量分析方法，检验这一机制的存在性及其影响程度。本研究不仅拓展了前人的研究视域，还为我国农业碳减排政策的优化提供理论支撑。

本课题在城镇化深入推进的背景下，基于城乡人口迁移视角，试图从土地流转、农地细碎化减缓、农业经营模式创新方面，揭示城乡人口迁移、新型农业经营主体发育对农业碳排放的影响机制。一是，重点讨论城乡人口迁移与新型农业经营主体发育之间的内在因果关系；二是，探讨新型农业经营主体发育、农地细碎化减缓与农业碳排放之间的逻辑关系，并试图检验农地细碎化的碳减排效果；三是探究新型农业经营主体发育、经营模式创新与农业碳排放之间的内在影响机制，并定量分析经营模式创新对农业碳减排的贡献程度。.本课题主要采用农业部2015年全国家庭农场的监测数据以及2016-2017年课题组在安徽宿州、阜阳等地的实地调查数据。研究发现：第一，整体来看，我国家庭农场的农业低碳生产水平不高。虽然环境友好型农业技术的采用，可以在一定程度上促进农业低碳生产，但无法扭转我国家庭农场总体不低碳的趋势。流入耕地经营权稳定性的提升，在一定程度上促进家庭农场的低碳生产。第二，新型经营主体不仅需要创新经营模式，而且具备经营规模、资金实力、风险承受力等明显优势，但是，往往面临大面积的耕地、雄厚的经济实力、良好的产地环境质量等单个主体无法克服的现实约束。第三，农业经营模式创新，不仅可以增加要素利用效率，促进要素投入结构的低碳化，还可以提升农产品附加值，增加销售收入，因此，经营模式创新、农业低碳生产与新型经营主体的增收目标具有内在一致性。.课题组认为，从完善补贴政策、创新金融支持、改善产地环境等方面，支持新型经营主体的经营模式创新，应该成为政府推进低碳农业生产的重要抓手。本研究对于找寻中国农业的碳减排路径，具有重要决策参考。